ASML, the world's largest supplier of chipmaking tools, today reported stronger-than-expected first-quarter earnings and lifted its 2026 revenue outlook as artificial intelligence boosts demand for its equipment.
The stronger forecast reinforces ASML's position as sole provider of the EUV lithography tools needed to print cutting-edge AI chips for firms like Nvidia, even as it points to potential bottlenecks as demand for computing capacity in data centres soars.
"Demand for chips is outpacing supply," CEO Christophe Fouquet said in a statement, adding ASML has seen an influx of new orders in the past quarter as a result. "Our customers are accelerating their capacity expansion plans for 2026 and beyond."
The Veldhoven, Netherlands-based firm, Europe's most valuable by market capitalisation, said 2026 revenue will now be between €36 billion and €40 billion, up from €34-39 billion previously. Analysts had forecast the figure at €37.7 billion, LSEG data show.
Investors say they view ASML as a "picks-and-shovels" play on AI, as it supplies key equipment to chipmakers such as TSMC, which in turn produces processors for Nvidia and Apple.
ASML's shares have risen 40% so far this year amid the rapid construction of data centres and a shortage of memory chips, both of which contribute to demand for ASML products. However, some analysts see its valuation as already high.
The new guidance increases 2026 sales estimates by 4%, Degroof Petercam analyst Michael Roeg said, adding that ASML's management has "smiles on their faces".
Addressing potential concerns about ASML's ability to keep up with demand, CFO Roger Dassen said the company should be able to ship 60 of its bestselling low-NA EUV tools in 2026 - 25% more than in 2025 - and will have capacity to ship 80 in 2027.
ASML is the only maker of these EUV, or extreme ultraviolet lithography tools, which can cost $300m each and use lasers to create the tiny circuitry of advanced chips. Other top ASML customers include Samsung and SK Hynix of South Korea.
First-quarter earnings were €2.76 billion on sales of €8.76 billion. That was up from €2.36 billion on sales of €7.74 billion in the first quarter of 2025.
One shadow hanging over the firm is the possibility of new restrictions on ASML's ability to ship tools to China proposed by US Congress in legislation called the "MATCH Act".
"The upside seems to be coming mainly in immersion lithography, where ASML was previously expecting a decline due to a fall in China sales, but is now expecting an almost flattish trend," said Jefferies analyst Janardan Menon in a note.
"This could partially reflect MATCH Act-related accelerated buying" by Chinese customers, he said.
In a discussion of the results, CFO Dassen said ASML's new guidance takes account of "potential outcomes of the export control discussions that are currently ongoing."
