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Ryanair cautious about winter travel after quarterly profit soars

Ryanair's passenger numbers between April and June grew 11% to 50.4 million
Ryanair's passenger numbers between April and June grew 11% to 50.4 million

Ryanair has today posted a €663m after-tax profit for the three months ending in June, far above pre-pandemic levels and an increase of almost 300% on the same time last year.

But the airline - Europe's largest by passenger numbers - lowered its passenger growth forecast for 2023 because of Boeing delivery delays.

Ryanair said it had already received indications from Boeing that some deliveries of 737-8200s jets may be delayed from April 2024 to June 2024, potentially impacting this winter and next spring.

It now expects traffic in the year to March 2024 to grow by 9% to around 183.5 million compared to the 185 million originally expected.

Chief Financial Officer Neil Sorahan said he was not as concerned about the delays as he was a few months ago, that Boeing had improved significantly and deliveries were more recently hit by factors outside the planemaker's control.

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Ryanair flew a record number of monthly passengers both in May and June.

It said it saw average fares jump by 42% year-on-year rose to €49 in the quarter on a strong Easter and a weaker comparative period that was impacted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Ticket pricing for bookings for the July-September quarter, typically Ryanair's most profitable period of the year, is expected to rise year-on-year by a low double digit percentage, Ryanair said.

The airline said it remained cautiously optimistic about a modest increase in full year profit and that it hoped to be in a position to provide more meaningful guidance in November.

"We noted a softening in close-in fares in late June and early July," group chief executive Michael O'Leary added in a statement.

"We are conscious that consumers may require some fare stimulation to fill our 25% greater seat capacity this winter (compared to pre-Covid) following months of rising mortgage rates and consumer price inflation".

The profit for the first quarter of Ryanair's fiscal year was a four-fold increase on the €170m a year ago when air travel began to take off following Covid-19 lockdowns and beat the previous high for the period, €397m in 2017.

The final number compared with a forecast of €620m in a company poll of analysts.

The group said total operating costs increased 23% to €2.94 billion, primarily due to higher fuel costs, higher staff costs and higher ATC fees.

Ryanair's full year fuel requirements for next year are almost 85% hedged.

Group CEO Michael O'Leary said every customer switching to Ryanair from "high fare EU legacy carriers" can reduce their emissions by up to 50% per flight.

He said Ryanair continues to invest heavily in new technology aircraft.

Ryanair's 'Gamechanger' fleet stood at 119 at quarter end and it expects to increase this to 124 by the end of July. It also expects to take delivery of 49 more of the jets by end of the year.

On the wildfire situation in Rhodes, Neil Sorahan said there has not been a noticeable impact on passenger cancellations, but added that the airline would facilitate passengers who wish to return home on earlier flights free of charge.

"We are giving a free of charge option for people who want to transfer onto an earlier flight home from Rhodes but as things stand, the schedule is continuing to operate," he said.

Mr Sorahan said it was hard to know if the extreme heat experienced across Europe this month will impact passenger numbers and travel habits next summer.

"We operate to 36 different countries all across Europe, all the way from Scandinavia to southern Italy and north Africa. Lots of choice and people continue to book in numbers," he said.

"What will happen next year remains to be seen but I think, particularly in Ireland and the UK, there's been a lot of rain in the past few days and people still want to get away," he added.

Ryanair shares, up 26% so far this year on the back of a post-pandemic travel boom, were lower in Dublin trade today.