The chief executive of Ryanair has predicted fares will have to rise by a small amount next year, in order to cover the rising cost of fuel.
But Michael O'Leary also said that while people may fly less over the coming months as a result of the rising cost of living and economic downturn, they would fly less with more expensive airlines.
He was speaking to RTÉ News ahead of the company's AGM in Dublin, from which reporters were excluded.
The Ryanair boss told RTÉ News that the airline was taking advantage of a very strong fuel hedging position, having bought most of its fuel needs forward to April 2023 at around $64 a barrel, well below where prices currently stand.
"And we are able to pass on those savings to our customers in the form of lower fares," he said.
"That’s why we are growing strongly. We’ve had a very strong summer. If there are no disruptions with Covid or with Ukraine this winter we think we are on track to carry around 166m passengers this year," he added.
Mr O'Leary predicted that competitors that have not hedged fuel to the same extent would be facing much higher costs and would probably have to put up prices.
He said that for summer 2023, Ryanair has hedged about 50% of its fuel at around $92, so it is also facing higher bills next year.
But that does not mean fares will be considerably higher by next summer though, he said.
"We would need to see a small increase in our fares to cover that higher oil bill next year," he added.
The Ryanair boss added that there is a risk oil could fall in cost by next summer depending on what happens with the Ukraine war, but could also rise.
"But generally with recession hanging over the world, I think the likely trend in oil prices are down and that’s why we have only hedged 50% of our fuel," Mr O’Leary said.
He said there is a risk that people will fly less because of the economic outlook, but predicted that they will fly less on more expensive airlines.
As people become more price sensitive in a recession, he said, they tend to switch their shopping habits.
Mr O'Leary said forward bookings look strong into the autumn period - and for the first time in three years they are stronger than they were pre-Covid.
"This will be the first Christmas for three years that families can be reunited. We are seeing very strong Christmas bookings," he added.
"What we have to hope now is that there is no adverse news flow around Covid, another variant, or the Ukraine, that causes any disruption to those travel patterns between now and Christmas," he stated.
Mr O'Leary said he saw no reason for the Government to extend the passenger incentive scheme into next summer of next year as volumes have now recovered.
"We except to maintain these growth levels into 2023," he said.
Ryanair largely avoided the summer disruption to operations caused by staffing difficulties, which Mr O’Leary said had been "lucky".
He said because the airline had been taking delivery of 70 new aircraft for last summer it had hired a lot of pilots and cabin crew.
He said Ryanair had taken the "brave decision" during the Omicron wave last Christmas and in February when Russia invaded Ukraine to keep the people employed, so as a result it was the only European airline fully staffed this summer.
"We still have a challenging recruitment environment, we need to hire about 2,000 cabin crew and about 1,000 pilots for our growth for summer of 2023," he said.
"But we have most of those people now in training and we don’t expect there to be any staffing issues. I think most of our competitors who did suffer staffing shortages this summer will have fixed those by the summer of 2023," he added.
Ryanair is closing its base at Brussels-National airport this winter.
But Mr O’Leary denied the decision was a result of the imposition of a new environmental tax, but rather was a result of price increases by the airport at a time when traffic had fallen.
"We accept there should be environmental taxes on air travel, we accept that our passengers should pay those taxes," he said.
"What we don’t accept and what we believe is unfair is that all of the taxes are being put on the most efficient and greenest passengers, which are those flying Ryanair," he said.
The Ryanair CEO said the airline is still struggling to get delivery of its new Boeing aircraft. It did take delivery of 73 aircraft in advance of summer 2022 and is scheduled to take delivery of 51 new aircraft before next summer.
"Boeing, though, are struggling to deliver those aircraft, we were supposed to get 21 this side of Christmas, it looks like they might deliver 13 or 14. We are concerned we won’t catch that up between January and April and that might impede our growth into the summer of 2023," he said.
He added that he would travel to see senior Boeing executives in Seattle in early October and will hope to receive assurances that Boeing will leave "no stone unturned" to deliver the 51 aircraft before April next year.
Responding to concerns raised in advance of today’s AGM by a shareholder advisory group about the level of variable remuneration at Ryanair, Mr O’Leary said senior executives at the airline are not overpaid.
He added that shareholders had voted in favour of pay restorations by around 98%.
"Management at this airline took pay cuts of 50% during Covid," he said.
"We are restoring those pay cuts in the same way we are in active negotiations with our pilots and cabin crew about restoring their pay cuts as well," he added.
Speaking after the AGM, Mr O'Leary apologised to journalists over their exclusion from the meeting.
He said AGMs are for shareholders and the media had been invited to attend a briefing with him following the meeting, not the meeting itself.
"Buy a share next year and you can come along," he said.
When asked why reporters had been excluded this year when they had been allowed attend previous AGMs, Mr O'Leary said he didn't know.
"If you were allowed into previous AGMs and you weren't allowed in this morning then I apologise, it was a mistake on our part," he said.
Meanwhile, All resolutions at today's AGM were approved, Ryanair said, with 96% backing the remuneration policy and 100% backing the company's annual accounts.
Most of the board was re-elected by at least 85% of shareholders, though two former senior Ryanair executives, Howard Millar and Michael Cawley were backed by 72% each.
Proxy advisory firm PIRC has questioned whether former executives can provide independent oversight.
Michael O'Leary said he did not agree and said the two gave management "the most grief" of any board members. He said he had no plans to replace either.
Ryanair shares moved higher in Dublin trade today.
