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OECD slashes growth outlook, raises inflation estimate

The world economy is set to grow 3% this year, much less than the 4.5% expected
The world economy is set to grow 3% this year, much less than the 4.5% expected

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has set the world's economy on a course of lower growth and higher inflation, according to the OECD's Economic Outlook.

The Paris-based think tank has lowered its forecast for world economic growth to 3% this year.

It had forecast growth of 4.5% in December.

It has doubled its forecasts for inflation in OECD member states to 9%. It forecasts inflation this year to average 7% across the euro area.

It forecasts GDP growth in the euro area of 2.6% this year and 1.6% next year.

Its forecasts for Ireland are for the economy to grow in GDP terms by 4.8% this year and 2.7% next year. It forecasts inflation this year of 6.6% and 5% next year.

In its commentary, it says additional fiscal measures to counter inflation in Ireland should "better target poorer households, particularly in the event of further food price increases".

It also says that higher than expected corporation tax should be diverted into contingency funds.

It says that credits to electricity bills and lower excise rates on fuel "have provided only limited protection to poorer households".

It expects wages here to grow strongly this year, due to a tight labour market but to moderate after that as growth slows.

It warns that higher interest rates could result in more domestic companies cutting back or abandoning investment plans.

It also warns housing could become less affordable. And it warns that "persistently high input price inflation" could hamper the Government's retrofitting and social housing building plans.

It also says that economic growth could turn out to be stronger if multinational companies "again surprise on the upside".

Speaking at a press conference this morning in Paris, the chief economist of the OECD Laurence Boone also warned of the looming threat of famine in some countries as a result of the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

"The outlook is sobering, and the world is already paying the price for Russia's aggression. The choices made by policymakers and citizens will be crucial to determining how high that price will be and how the burden will be shared. Famine is not a price the world should pay," she said.