The Operation Yellowhammer document about a no-deal Brexit claims to outline the British government's "reasonable worst-case planning assumptions".
The report is available to read here, but these are ten scenarios listed in the dossier, which was published after MPs demanded it be made public.
- The analysis indicates that the aim of avoiding a hard border in Northern Ireland may be "unsustainable".
- Protests and counter-protests will take place across the UK and may absorb "significant" amounts of police resources. There may also be a rise in public disorder and community tensions.
- The document notes that day one after exit is a Friday "which may not be to our advantage" and may coincide with the end of the October half-term school holidays.
- Flow of cross-Channel goods could be reduced to 40% of current rates on day one, with "significant disruption lasting up to six months", and the document adds: "Unmitigated, this will have an impact on the supply of medicines and medical supplies."
- On food, it warns that some fresh supplies will decrease and that "critical dependencies for the food chain" such as key ingredients "may be in shorter supply". It says these factors would not lead to overall food shortages "but will reduce the availability and choice of products and will increase price, which could impact vulnerable groups".
- Disruption to flow across the short Channel Straits would also cause "significant" queues in Kent and delays to HGVs attempting to use the routes to travel to France. In a reasonable worst-case scenario, HGVs could face maximum delays of one-and-a-half and two-and-a-half days before being able to cross the border.
The document says the worst disruption to the short Channel Straits might last for up to three months before it improves by a significant level to around 50-70% (due to more traders getting prepared), although there could continue to be some disruption for significantly longer.
- The document says an increase in inflation following EU exit would "significantly" affect adult social care providers due to increasing staff and supply costs, and may lead to provider failure, with smaller providers affected within two-three months and larger providers four-six months after exit.
- The document says UK citizens travelling to and from the EU "may be subject to increased immigration checks at EU border posts" causing delays.
- The document says up to 282 EU and EEA nations fishing vessels could enter illegally, or already be fishing in UK waters on day one, which is "likely to cause anger and frustration" in the UK catching sector, which could lead to clashes between fishing vessels.
- Public and business readiness for a no-deal will remain at a low level, and will decrease to lower levels, because the absence of a clear decision on the form of EU Exit (customs union, no deal etc) does not provide a concrete situation for third parties to prepare for. Readiness will be further limited by "increasing EU Exit fatigue", the document says.