Chaos theory is defined as "complex systems whose behaviour is highly sensitive to slight changes in conditions, so … small alterations can give rise to strikingly great consequences".
There was plenty of chaos and it seemed very little theory in Westminster on Wednesday night as the government grappled with another Brexit defeat.
A last-minute decision to whip Conservative Party MPs meant that four ministers abstained from the crucial vote. In doing so, they saved their jobs and saved the potential collapse of the government but when ministers don’t support the government and remain in position, all pretence of normal governance is gone.
But from the chaos of Wednesday night’s events has risen the imminent prospect of a third meaningful vote. Those of you, admittedly few, who like a crucial Commons vote every 24 hours have been spoiled for choice this week. Next week now holds good news for you also.
Following the Commons decision to remove a no-deal Brexit, Theresa May’s government has tabled a motion for debate on Thursday that offers to seek a one-off extension of Article 50, delaying the Brexit date of 29 March to 30 June.
But that short extension would only be sought on the basis that MPs approve the deal negotiated with the EU by next Wednesday. Otherwise, any extension sought would be longer, potentially years rather than months.
It has upped the stakes in an already high stakes game and will make Brexiteers carefully consider whether or not they want to risk a long extension. A long-delayed exit is something they fear could create space for Brexit to be lost altogether if it allows time for a general election or a second referendum.
In any chaos theory though a ‘small alteration’ is needed and so focus now turns to whether further legal advice could be provided from the Attorney General to allow the DUP and hardline Brexiteers to reconsider their position and support Mrs May.
It was the legal advice issued by the Attorney General Geoffrey Cox this week that made many Brexiteers say they couldn’t support Mrs May. Could further clarification make them change their minds - a small alteration that could give rise to strikingly great consequences?
A deal declared dead by many just 24 hours ago could be back in play. And if it is brought back to MPs it must be before next Wednesday. And with it the chance of success for Theresa May’s Brexit deal. A chance which is remote, yes and slim, certainly, but possible.
