Peadar Tóibín sees Aontú as a party of Government.
"We will have at least a dozen TDs in the next general election" he says.
That was the jaunty message to political journalists he spoke to at his party conference this weekend.
A long time TD himself, first for Sinn Féin and then Aontú which he founded in 2019, Deputy Tóibín is an adept and experienced parliamentarian, who has consistently kept his party's name in the headlines.
Aontú, according to the leader, is a 32-county, pro-life, common sense alternative to the other political parties, that listens to people’s problems and offers simple solutions.
However, many would doubt that 12 seats is a realistic prospect.
The party leader bases his assessment on recent opinion polls that indicate fairly consistent support levels for Aontú of 5% to 6% of the first preference vote.
Growth mode
He says Aontú is in growth mode and makes much of the fact its first preference vote in the 2024 general elections rose to 3.9% from 2%.
In the end, that only yielded two seats for the party while parties on smaller percentages won more seats.
Independent Ireland for example got four TDs elected on 3.6% of the vote while People before Profit/Solidarity got three seats on 2.8%.
The latter two did not stand candidates in every constituency and targeted their efforts at constituencies where they might win.
Aontú in contrast, stood candidates in all 43 constituencies, upping the national percentage of the vote overall but not getting the seat yield.
'Common sense’
Many of the party's political aims are similar to the other Opposition offerings when it comes to tackling the problems that people face from day to day
These include the cost of living, lack of housing, soaring rents and putting a functioning immigration system in place.
However, Aontú is trying to position itself as the party of common sense.
Delivering his Leaders speech on national television, it was not the party name emblazoned on Deputy Tóibín's podium, but the words ‘common sense"
No doubt he and his party colleagues will hope voters will view their campaign to end M50 tolls as ‘common sense’, given that piece of infrastructure has long ago been paid for by motorists.
They hope voters will view other policies in the same way.
Policies like their call to stop the carbon tax increases on fuels given prices are soaring again, their promise to knock €50000 euro off the price of a house by reducing VAT to zero, or getting accountability in the political system.
Social issues
However, it is in the area of social issues that Aontú has a most distinct position on the political spectrum.
The party was founded by Peadar Tóibín, after he resigned from Sinn Féin over that party’s support for legalising abortion and repealing the 8th Amendment.
Today, Aontú remains opposed to abortion, but the position is not to reinstate a constitutional ban but rather to ensure women never decide on termination because they feel economically constrained or would be left unsupported in the event of a child with disability being born.
During the leader's speech some of the loudest applause came when he spoke on other social and related issues.
On gender, he said: "Aontú is the only party in the Dáil that opposes gender ideology and can say the simple sentence a woman is a female adult and an adult male cannot get pregnant."
More applause when he reminded members Aontú was the only Dáil party to oppose the family and care referendums and stopped the Government from deleting the word ‘mother’ from the Constitution.
Applause again when he said they opposed the so-called Hate Speech Bill which he said was in fact "a censorship bill" that would have stopped free speech.
He also reminded members that it was Aontú who tried to get conservative candidate Maria Steen into the presidential election to address a "democratic deficit".
By-elections
With its distinctive positions, the obvious ability of its leader to argue his point and communicate effectively, Aontú does have a different offering to put to voters.
The party may have had modest success since its foundation, but it is slowly building electoral strength with two TDs, a Senator, ten councillors and other councillors soon to join, according to party sources.
The first test will be the upcoming by-elections in Dublin Central and Galway West.
Unsurprisingly at the Ard Fheis, the party made sure their candidates (Ian Noel Smyth for Dublin Central and Orla Nugent in Galway West), had prominent placings alongside the leader when the cameras were rolling.
Whether elected or not, how those candidates fare will tell much about the actual support Aontú can command at constituency level.
Coalition
Come the next General Election if, as the party leader asserts they return with 12 seats the question arises; who might they consider entering into coalition with?
Well not Fine Gael for a start.
"We’ve made that clear," says Depuy Tóibín.
"We think Simon Harris and Fine Gael have created great damage in a range of different areas over the last number of years and we commit to not returning them to government."
Other party sources also say an awful lot of their voters want ‘change’ and it would go down very badly with them to put a party that has been in Government since 2011 back into power.
It will surely charm Fianna Fáil to hear that Deputy Tóibín thinks they would be an ideal coalition partner, but not in a way that Fianna Fáil members might like.
"Well I’m no fan of Fianna Fáil but one thing I will say…is because they have no ideological core, it’s easier to direct Fianna Fáil in terms of which way you want to go as a country."
And we believe because of our ideological core we will be able to drive a government." A case of the tail wagging dog is Deputy Tóibín's assessment.
Read more: Govt has broken the 'social contract', says Aontú leader
The other possibility is a coalition led by Sinn Féin, the party with which he fell out with over his opposition to repealing the 8th.
Now the Aontú position on abortion is more nuanced, the fact that it is also a 32-county party and strongly asserts its United Ireland credentials would serve as common ground.
As the curtain came down on this party event in Port Laoise this evening, the stage was dismantled and the lights carried away.
The political energy faded down and the Aontú politicians and delegates who spent the day in discussions and debates gave way to families celebrating confirmations, baptisms and other varied milestones in their lives.
Thoughts of elections suddenly seemed very far away.
