The Dublin Central by-election promises to be a heated high-stakes battle conducted in the glare of intense media attention.
It is now expected that the vote will take place on 22 May along with the other contest in Galway West.
In the capital, this will be a test of the strength of the brand of Sinn Féin's party leader, with Mary Lou McDonald under huge pressure to deliver a second seat in her constituency on the back of her personal popularity.
But the Social Democrats is throwing huge resources at the contest with canvassing already well under way for Councillor Daniel Ennis.
And there will be intense scrutiny of Gerard 'The Monk' Hutch - the man named in the Special Criminal Court as the leader of the Hutch criminal gang.
So what is the state of play in the constituency three months out from polling day?
Dublin Central 'is Mary Lou's to lose'
"It’s Mary Lou’s to lose", is the view privately expressed by many politicians in Dublin Central - an analysis shared by Theresa Reidy, professor of politics at University College Cork.
"If they are going to lead government, they have to pick up second seats in constituencies like this and the by-election will test that proposition," she said.
This tallies with the general acceptance that by-elections are extremely difficult for the government to win, and the fact Sinn Féin has topped the poll in Dublin Central in the last few general elections.
A local politician also points to the pressure on Ms McDonald to marshal support.
"If she can’t use her leadership skills to deliver the Sinn Féin vote and to work with others in the left alliance to secure transfers - that'll be massive failure on her part and would be very hard to explain," the local politician said.
But so far the party has not agreed on its candidate amid rumblings of local disharmony.
Sinn Féin has confirmed that two people will contest the selection convention - Gillian Sherratt and Councillor Janice Boylan.
Ms Sherratt is the mother of nine-year-old Harvey Morrison, who died after waiting a number of years for spinal surgery.
But just how strong is the Sinn Féin vote? Ms McDonald topped the poll in 2024 with 19.5% but that was nowhere near enough to bring in her running mate, Cllr Boylan.
It was also way down on the giddy highs of the 35.7% she polled in 2020 when Dublin Central was one of many constituencies where the party left behind a seat by not running enough candidates.
One local political figure observed that the 2024 performance does not guarantee a seat.
"Mary Lou McDonald topped the poll but not with a great result. And that reflects her weakness and raises serious questions about the local organisation," they said.
Soc Dems pushing hard
Despite Sinn Féin being the early favourite, the Social Democrats is pushing hard to get its councillor Daniel Ennis over the line.
He was one of the first to declare and the local party organisation has already dropped 23,000 leaflets through doors.
Local TD Gary Gannon said the party’s confidence stems from the fact that it believes it has a great candidate and it is also very prepared for the contest.
The party will be hoping it can not only deliver the Social Democrats vote but that Mr Ennis could also hoover up Labour votes as that party has no local councillors.
The party is bullish about his chances buoyed by its current high standing in national polls and the hope that a weaker Sinn Féin candidate could play well for their chances.
And it hopes that his base in the north inner city will also pull votes in the area.
Media's Hutch focus could be a challenge for contenders
The Labour Party holds its selection convention early next month with Ruth O’Dea and Joanna Siewierska seeking the party's backing.
But all contenders face a challenge for media attention in the face of the likely focus on Gerard Hutch.
He pulled off a shock result in the 2024 General Election by coming in fourth on first preferences in the four-seat constituency with 9.5% of the votes.
However, he flagged on transfers and was overtaken dramatically on the final count by Labour’s Marie Sherlock who took the last seat.
He has declared that he will run again and he has apparently been taken soundings from political experts on the peculiarities of the Irish transfer system.
Undoubtedly he will pitch himself as the anti-establishment candidate railing against existing public representatives.
But will he make himself available to real media scrutiny this time round? In the general election, he avoided taking questions, instead focusing on social media and some local events.
And several local representatives have spoken privately about their disquiet about the amount of unchallenging media attention he got in 2024 and is already receiving this time.
But one predicts this will not translate into victory.
"He’s going to hoover up the media exposure which will mean he'll get 8%-10% but no transfers," they said.
And this remains the challenge for his candidacy. In a by-election, the winner needs to eventually reach 50% plus one which poses a serious difficulty for somebody who will be toxic to many voters.
Prospect of another Hutch run 'chilling'
Another local representative said they found the prospect of his electoral run "chilling".
"This is an indication of how under pressure our democracy is and how devalued politicians have become. There is a toxic narrative pushed about public representatives that has devalued the role so that anybody thinks they can do it including a criminal. It is chilling," they said.
Of course the by-election was created by the departure of Fine Gael minister Paschal Donohoe.
His former right-hand man, Councillor Ray McAdam is currently Lord Mayor of Dublin, and he also topped the poll in the north inner city ward in the local elections in 2024.
But the conventional wisdom remains that the Government could not win in this by-election.
Mr McAdam will seek his party’s nomination and would be the favourite to secure the run given his high profile.
Fine Gael also has two other councillors in the area - Gayle Ralph and Colm O’Rourke.
Fianna Fáil's apparent low expectations
Fianna Fáil appears to have low expectations for this contest with party leader Taoiseach Micheál Martin already conceding that it is difficult terrain.
The party’s best known local representative - Senator Mary Fitzpatrick - has ruled herself out saying that she will instead concentrate on her Seanad work.
Deputy Lord Mayor of Dublin, Councillor John Stephens, has said he will seek the party's nomination.
The Green Party has selected Councillor Janet Horner who will be hoping for a decent showing after the drubbing of the general election.
People Before Profit-Solidarity is running Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin, while Aontú’s candidate will be Ian Noel Smyth.
Councillor Malachy Steenson has also said he will run again and his transfers may well bolster the chances of Gerard Hutch as they did in 2024.
And what about the much-touted united left fresh from the victory of securing the Áras?
No formal transfer pact is expected other than general advice to vote left and transfer left.
