It is now almost 20 years since the introduction of a passenger cap at Dublin Airport, and times have certainly changed.
The restriction was among the conditions attached to a planning permission that was granted in 2007, for the construction of Terminal 2.
It set a limit on passengers passing through the airport's two terminals at 32 million a year, due mainly to concerns over congestion on access roads.
That year, Dublin Airport handled just over 23 million people, but since then the growth in passengers has taken off.
Last year, 33.3 million passengers travelled through Dublin Airport, breaching the cap.
And the daa, which operates the airport, said it's on track to exceed the restriction again this year.
The High Court suspended the cap's implementation, while it referred legal proceedings to the Court of Justice of the European Union for determination last December.
Airlines, including Aer Lingus and Ryanair, took a challenge against the Irish Aviation Authority's move to reduce the allocation of take-off and landing slots to comply with the cap.
Where do matters now stand?
The restriction has long been a bone of contention for the aviation industry, as well as the business and tourism sectors, amid claims it is stifling economic growth.
In the Programme for Government, the coalition pledged to "work with stakeholders to achieve our objective of lifting the passenger cap at Dublin airport as soon as possible."
The Minister for Transport recently announced plans is to pursue a legislative course of action to bring a memo to Cabinet setting out options to lift the limit.
Darragh O’Brien said the coalition has "a commitment in the Programme for Government to deal with this, and we will."
At the time, he stated the process of getting the legislation passed is likely to take "a period of 10 to 12 months."
"Whilst that is happening, though, it's critically important that the current planning process continues to be adhered to."
Minister O’Brien has said he hoped to bring the memo for approval to draft the legislation before the Budget, which will be announce on 7 October.
On Friday, a spokesperson for Darragh O’Brien said the Minister plans to "shortly" bring the memorandum to Government "to seek approval for the development of a general scheme and associated heads of Bill."
This week, the operator of Dublin Airport said it welcomed the Minister’s commitment to bring forward legislative options to remove what it described as "the out‑dated 32 million passengers per annum cap."
The daa said it also welcomed the acknowledgement from Darragh O’Brien that long‑term planning should accommodate a Dublin Airport capable of serving up to 60 million passengers over the coming decades.
Cap has 'held back growth, created uncertainty'
The chief executive of the daa, Kenny Jacobs, said the cap has "held back growth and created uncertainty that we, the airlines and the economy don't need."
"We’ll keep working with stakeholders to progress our planning applications with Fingal County Council as we need to add infrastructure to cope with demand and maintain our excellent standards and we will continue to actively engage with the local community as we need their support," Mr Jacobs added.
The Chief Executive of the Ryanair Group this week renewed his call on the Government to abolish the passenger cap and before the end of the year.
Michael O’Leary accused the Government of "blatant inaction" and doing "nothing" to address the restriction limit over the last nine months.
Speaking at a press conference in Dublin on Thursday, he ridiculed the idea of pursuing a legislative approach that could take up to a year.
"They have a 20-seat majority. Pass the legislation to scrap the cap before the end of December," he demanded.
"They promised legislation in January of this year. They said that they would pass legislation to remove the cap as soon as possible. Nine months later, nothing is done."
"Now he's promising legislation, but it won't be passed until next year. Two years after this government was elected," he added.
Mr O’Leary accused the coalition of being a "do nothing government".
He said passing the legislation before the end of the year would "give American airlines the opportunity to add more routes and capacity."
"The Americans and the long haul airlines won't invest with that uncertainty hanging over them, and all we need is the Government to pass the law. You have a 20-seat majority, get on with it."
He has projected that passenger numbers in Dublin could reach 36 million this year, and up 40 million next year, based on current trends.
The Ryanair boss also described the new limit on the number of night-time flights at Dublin Airport as "an illegal second movements cap."
The decision, which the airline is seeking to challenge through a High Court judicial review, was announced as part of a ruling by An Coimisiún Pleanála in July.
The planning watchdog extended the operating hours of the new north runway to between 6am and midnight. Previously, there had been a ban on landing or taking off from that runway between 11pm and 7am.
As a result, the number of flights permitted at the airport on its two runways was also increased from an average of 65 a night to 95 between 11pm and 7am, with a limit of 35,672 a year.
US trade association welcomes Minister's plan
A trade association representing US passenger and cargo carriers has also welcomed the Transport Minister’s plan.
Members of Airlines for America (A4A) include Delta, American Airlines, United, JetBlue and Air Canada, as well as FedEx and UPS.
The group has repeatedly called for the commitment to address the limit to be fulfilled.
A4A said it is "pleased the Irish government is following through on their campaign promises and beginning to take the necessary steps to remove the Dublin passenger cap."
In a statement, the trade association said: "Getting this across the finish line as soon as possible is necessary to preserving Dublin as a critical transatlantic link between the US and Europe."
A4A previously said the cap is detrimental to the Irish economy, as it limits growth at Dublin Airport.
But it’s not just the aviation sector that wants to see the passenger cap abolished.
Limit lift to be discussed at Irish Tourism Industry Confederation conference
Lifting the limit will be among the key issues down for discussion at the annual conference of the Irish Tourism Industry Confederation in Kilkenny next week.
The ITIC chief executive, Eoghan O’Mara Walsh, said it has been "the critical issue for Irish tourism and its future growth" for some time.
"Tourism is very dependent on international air access and about 75% of the Irish tourism economy is made-up of international visitors, so it's vital that we get visitors from overseas into the country."
"Dublin is obviously the main gateway and to have an arbitrary cap at the airport, does by very definition, stunt growth."
Welcoming the planned legislation, Mr O’Mara Walsh said the cap needs to be lifted as soon as possible.
"I support the view of Michael O'Leary. I think this should happen as soon as possible over the next few months. I'd like the government to expedite it, if at all possible."
The tourism industry boss said the issue has been "stuck in a sort of a Groundhog Day of planning" and he said he believes "it wasn't really appropriate that the local authority was the one tasked with deciding whether a key strategic national asset was able to grow or not."
Mr O’Mara Walsh also said new airlines that are thinking of expanding routes are "not considering Dublin and Ireland because of the uncertainty over the passenger cap."
"And they won't consider Ireland until the passenger cap is lifted," he added.
"If you look at the macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty that Ireland faces at the moment, having a problem that we created ourselves, stymieing our growth, is just nonsensical."
"So, we need to move, and we need to move quickly," he insisted.
But support for the lifting of the limit on passenger numbers if not universal, with the turbulence set to continue.
The issue has been long been contentious, with the planned legislative move also facing criticism from local residents and environmentalists.
Dr Niamh Maher, a medical consultant, lives with her husband and two children under the flight path of the North Runway.
She said it now appears "the concerns of the community are being overlooked in favour of profit for airlines and aviation."
"Our health is being traded off for the benefit of the economy. Obviously the economy is important, but it's also important to weigh in the true concerns and health implications."
Dr Maher, who is a spokesperson for the St Margaret's The Ward Residents Group, said the residents in the area "feel like we are being completely brushed aside."
"The majority are disappointed and actually quite shocked at the fact that [legislation] would be considered to lift the cap when there's so many outstanding issues related to noise pollution and that so many residents are suffering at the moment and these issues haven't been appropriately addressed."
"The mitigation that is in place for some is inadequate," she added.
Criticising the legislative approach, Dr Maher said the planning process is "there for a reason because other factors have to be considered when decisions are made."
"The planning process is meant to factor in these environmental factors, and it's hard to understand how legislation can be just brought in to override it, when that is an essential component of how anything is constructed or planned."
She maintains the residents are being told in "a very inarticulate way by some people that we should just put up with it because it's for the greater good," which she said is "not a very democratic way to look at it."
Dr Maher has vowed to continue with the campaign against the removal of the cap.
Environmental concerns
Concerns too have been raised by environmentalists.
Any increase in the passenger numbers, will result in an increase in flights and an increase in carbon emissions.
daa estimated that total greenhouse gas emissions from airport operations, surface access and aviation at Dublin Airport would rise by almost 8% in 2026, if the passenger cap was lifted from 32 million to 36 million.
The chief executive of Friends of the Earth said lifting the passenger cap means "more flights and more pollution."
"Yet the Government is planning to remove it without putting forward any credible strategies to cut aviation pollution and its climate impact," said Deirdre Duffy.
"We all need clean healthy air and a less polluted environment. Aviation as it currently operates is a polluting industry and its emissions must be reduced as fast as possible right now."
Ms Duffy said pollution from aviation should be on a pathway to zero and for this to happen, "we need to plan, regulate and conduct ongoing environmental assessment of all legal and policy proposals on aviation."
"As the grassroots group Childrens' Rights Over Flights have highlighted, more planes in the sky today is not compatible with a stable climate for our children," she added.
The Friends of the Earth CEO also said the recent International Court of Justice advisory opinion "made clear that a failure by States to constrain or regulate companies which are driving up pollution could constitute a breach of international law."
What about the planning applications?
The planning process is still a work in progress but Fingal County Council said it has "stalled at the moment" as two applications on increasing passenger capacity are "incomplete."
In a statement, the council said it is awaiting responses to requests for further information from the daa, before decisions can be made.
"The 40 million application (F23A/0781) was submitted on 20 December 2023. daa has not yet responded to a request for information from the Aircraft Noise Competent Authority, which was made on 1 March 2024.
"The 36million application (F25A/0094E), which was submitted on 6 February 2025, was initially assessed by the Planning Authority in accordance with relevant national and regional planning guidance as well as the Fingal Development Plan and the Dublin Airport Local Area Plan."
Fingal County Council said a request for further information was issued to the daa on 1 April 2025.
"The final date for the daa to submit a response is now 7 January 2026 following a request by the daa for additional time to respond," it added.
The war of words over Dublin Airport’s controversial passenger cap shows no sign of easing up anytime soon, amid very conflicting opinions on what should happen.
And while the focus is now on a legislative approach taking off, a timeline for when the limit is lifted, through the planning system or through legislation, is still up in the air.
