When Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine happened in February 2022, as Ireland emerged from the Covid-19 pandemic, it instantly contributed to an astonishing surge in prices.
Inflation was a massive 7.8% that year, and 6.3% in 2023, before returning to a more normal 2.1% last year.
The Government introduced large cost-of-living packages to help households manage the sudden increase in prices.
These measures resulted in a budget on top of a budget, with an extensive series of one-off social welfare payments, two double Child Benefit payments, and credits worth hundreds of euro added to customers’ electricity bills regardless of income.
Last year’s cost-of-living package cost the State €2 billion.
The coalition of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and independents is adamant that this year will be different and there won’t be similar measures when the Budget is announced on 7 October.
Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe said politically it would be a "difficult message" and Tánaiste Simon Harris acknowledged there would be "pangs of anxiety when people hear the one-off measures aren’t going to be there".
Minister for Public Expenditure Jack Chambers said that "moderation of current expenditure is a particular priority for this Government" as he published a report showing spending rose more than 50% since 2019.
The coalition is trying to reduce the increase in its outgoings after a series of warnings from the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council - the watchdog tasked with monitoring public finances following the crash.
The council has been sounding alarm bells about soaring expenditure partly financed by highly volatile Corporation Tax paid by multinationals.
If those unreliable windfalls from US corporations dried up Ireland would be running a massive deficit of €8 billion annually.
The Government is four years away from the next general election. Politically, if it’s going to make an unpopular manoeuvre, now is the time to do it.
With the headline rate of inflation over the past 12 months at 2% it would seem to be an opportunity to wean the public off the cost-of-living packages.
But inflation doesn’t work that way.
While the rate of price increases has moderated, consumers are seeing recent rises bulk up bills that have been escalating for some years.
The latest figures from the Central Statistics Office will make it politically harder to sell the message that the Government needs to abandon the cost-of-living packages.
Although the overall rate of inflation has moderated, food prices have soared by 5%.
This is not discretionary spending. Households can’t abandon supermarket shopping if finances are tight, as they might skip a foreign holiday.
Some of the increases are significant. Over the past 12 months beef is up 22%, lamb 13%, milk 12%, butter 18% and coffee 12% - compounding hikes of recent years.
There has also been a series of recent price rises for electricity customers with Bord Gáis Energy, Pinergy and Energia announcing double digit increases this week.
It is no surprise that opposition parties are zoning in on this political opportunity in the days before the Dáil resumes on Wednesday.
Sinn Féin’s Pearse Doherty said the coalition "needs to recognise the cost-of-living crisis isn't over and protect workers and families in this year's budget".
While costs have been rising, it is also the case that most wages, the State pension and social welfare rates have increased too, although many did not keep up with price hikes.
But the Government’s argument that Ireland now has a lower headline rate of inflation than in 2022 and 2023 is probably going to fall on deaf ears.
The coalition introduced a significant package of measures to help consumers in the weeks before last November’s election - although inflation was just 2.1% last year.
Economically, the Budget announced last year was the correct time to abandon cost-of-living supports. But there was an election around the corner. And the rest is politics.
