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Reform UK victory reflects disillusionment with politics

Many newly elected politicians said they believed Reform UK leader Nigel Farage would be the next Prime Minister
Many newly elected politicians said they believed Reform UK leader Nigel Farage would be the next Prime Minister

When pollsters carried out focus groups ahead of this week's local elections in England, the overwhelming sense they got from the people taking part was one of disillusionment.

Voters were left deeply disappointed after years of demanding "change".

It was a feeling that influenced many voters back in 2016 when they voted for Brexit, and in 2019 when red-wall seats turned blue to deliver Boris Johnson an impressive majority.

Last year, it was Labour's Keir Starmer that campaigned on the message of "change". But ten months into his premiership, many believe he’s failed.

And so, this week the Reform UK party were the beneficiaries of some of that Tory and Labour disillusionment.

By the end of Friday, the party had elected 677 councillors, a new MP and two mayors.

In their interviews afterwards, many of the newly elected politicians spoke of their belief that Nigel Farage would be the next Prime Minister in a few years' time.

It’s a sobering thought for Labour and the Conservatives.

Thursday’s vote also signalled another potential shift in British politics, that being the end of the two-party dominance.

It’s something that has been spoken of before in recent years but never came to pass.

Labour's Keir Starmer has been under pressure in recent months

Patrick English, Director of Political Analytics with YouGov, believes that five party politics is very much in play in the UK, with these elections showing the five parties of Labour, Conservatives, Reform, Liberal Democrats and the Green Party all in contention for decent seat numbers.

He also believes that there’s something different about Reform, compared to UKIP, especially considering that it has managed to increase its popularity since the general election.

UKIP, at its peak, gained 176 council seats. Reform UK has managed 677.

It’s also posing a real threat for both Labour and Conservatives in many different seats and not just parliamentary ones.

For example, while Labour won three of the six mayoral contests on Thursday, Reform were hot on their heels and came a close second in each.

On the streets of Dover earlier this week we met Marian Williams, a life-long Labour voter who decided that in this local election she was going to back Nigel Farage’s party.

"Labour have put everything up, foods gone up, gas, electric, the council tax, he’s put the whole lot up. What is he doing, Keir Starmer, what is he doing?" she asks.

Like many, she was furious with Labour’s decision to cut the winter fuel allowance.

For Mrs Williams, however, there’s another burning issue, which local authorities have no power over. That issue is illegal immigration.


Read more:
Reform UK sweeps to victory across councils in local elections
English voters cast their ballots in council and mayoral elections


It’s something that Reform voters feel particularly strongly about.

Luke Tryl, Executive Director of More in Common, explained this week that when voters were asked if there was one piece of advice they would give to Keir Starmer to get his government "working again", the top choice was stopping "small boats".

In previous years the advice was usually in relation to the NHS.

The impressive performance of Reform UK is likely to further impact the policy of the Conservatives and Labour going forward. It arguably already has.

Despite small boat arrivals exceeding over 10,000 so far this year, the Labour government is insisting that it will be able to tackle people smuggling gangs.

Conservatives are also hoping to convince a skeptical electorate that its plans to deal with the issue are more credible than Reform's.

Tory party leader Kemi Badenoch insisted on Friday that she would win back the trust of the British public.

At present, however, it seems that the two main parties are losing the room.

Other parties, namely Reform, are filling that void.