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US Tariffs: Ongoing uncertainty about where things go from here

The overall sense that pervaded many conversations and many press briefings today was that of ongoing uncertainty about where things go from here
The overall sense that pervaded many conversations and many press briefings today was that of ongoing uncertainty about where things go from here

It was another day of uneasy talking around Government Buildings.

Amid ongoing economic uncertainty, diplomatic contacts and no little fear about Donald Trump's tariffs, ministers met employers, unions, business groups and agencies for discussions about how best to deal with tariffs imposed by the US and the growing potential of an injurious trade war.

There was no shortage of ideas in both the Trade Forum and the Labour Employer Economic Forum, both of which took place in Government buildings.

Irish Congress of Trade Union General Secretary Owen Reidy came with suggestions for reducing Ireland’s dependency on the FDI sector, abandoning plans for cuts to tax and hospitality industry VAT, and a support scheme for any staff that might get put on short-term hours in sectors already covered by 20% tariffs.

That latter idea is one also supported by the employers' body, Ibec.

Danny McCoy, its CEO, said afterwards he believes workers in some sectors will quickly face reduced hours and need supports so they can stay connected to their employers.

Much was said about how EU members states must work together, how the European Commission must balance up the needs and concerns of all members states as it frames its response to the US administration, and how it should bide its time in responding.

Taoiseach Micheál Martin said the response, when it comes, must be done in a way that does not invite more damage.

He expressed confidence that the EU will negotiate a sensible landing zone with the US.

Tánaiste Simon Harris said despite provocation from the US, the approach of the EU and Ireland is to seek to deescalate and engage over tariffs.

He said the EU will have to take action if the US in unwilling to do so, but that is not the preference.

But the overall sense that pervaded many conversations and many press briefings today was that of ongoing uncertainty about where things go from here.

Could plunging markets lead to a change of heart by the US President? Might he pull back after China retaliated? Will his trade war hit home in Republican heartlands?

From Ireland’s perspective, will we get rolled over by bigger EU member states interests? Will the Commission response bring us further pain? Will the tech sector get hit with EU taxes if the pharma sectors gets tariffed by the US?

So many questions, so many possible answers, but few facts.

Uncertainty abounds for this small, open trading economy.