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Leaders balancing politics with military capabilities at Paris summit

The French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer appear determined to show that there is momentum
The French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer appear determined to show that there is momentum

The third Paris summit hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron had the biggest attendance yet, 27 leaders out of a scheduled 31, but the 'Coalition of the Willing' is inching forward at a slower pace than Ukraine would want.

Leaders are balancing politics with military capabilities. Sending European troops into harm's way is the biggest gamble political figures will ever take, and several national militaries are not as battle-ready as they should ideally be.

President Zelensky said last year that a peacekeeping force would need to be 200,000 strong, given there were 600,000 Russian troops in Ukraine.

Those figures have never been realistic, certainly for EU capitals.

Military planners spoke about numbers in the tens of thousands, then in the thousands.

That was then rationalised down to an emphasis on European air power to deter any Russian breaches of a ceasefire, with a so-called American backstop.

The third Paris summit hosted by Emmanuel Macron had the biggest attendance yet

It was when the Trump administration refused such a security guarantee that President Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer intensified their joint venture.

Heading into this latest Elysée gathering, the talk had shifted again.

Instead of a boots-on-the-ground presence that would robustly deter future Russian aggression, the emphasis was on two forces: a ceasefire monitoring force and a separate "reassurance" force, back from Russian lines.

"We are not on the front lines," President Macron said last night before hosting the Ukrainian leader for dinner.

"We don't go to fight, but we are there to guarantee a lasting peace. It’s a pacifist approach."

French troops, he said, would not "be engaged on the first day opposite Russian forces", but instead would "be forces that dissuade the Russians from attacking again. And by holding important towns, strategic bases, mark the clear support from several European allies."

The fact that the US has brokered a tentative ceasefire deal over the Black Sea has meant that the coalition has had to come up with concrete proposals about monitoring that - which could happen quickly.

The Taoiseach was in attendance at the 'Coalition Of The Willing' summit

Taoiseach Micheál Martin told reporters after the meeting that there was "a lot of talk around monitoring ceasefires, [regarding] advanced technologies that can assist in that as well."

Mr Martin added "there is a sense that Russia really hasn't engaged in any ceasefire yet, despite all of the talk… the bombing has continued, particularly on civilian infrastructure and on port infrastructure."

Despite the ponderous nature of the process, Mr Starmer said the gathering had demonstrated even deeper support to ensure Ukraine was in the strongest possible position going into negotiations, that sanctions on Russia should be increased not relaxed, and that military planners got into the operational phase as quickly as possible, whether the plans were "on the land, the air or the sea".

Mr Starmer said the gathering had demonstrated even deeper support to ensure Ukraine was strongest possible position going into negotiations

Mr Macron spelled out that there would be a peacekeeping force on the frontline monitoring the ceasefire, and a second "reassurance" force that would not "substitute the peacekeeping forces on the contact line or the strong and robust Ukrainian army".

Such a force, he said, would have to be deployed on the day after a peace agreement but he acknowledged that not all countries represented at the Elysée were either ready or willing to commit to this right now, politically and militarily.

Despite those reservations, the French and British leaders appear determined to show that there is momentum.

During his news conference that followed the meeting, President Macron said: "In very concrete terms, we agreed that the British Prime Minister and I will task our chiefs of defence to ensure that a Franco-British team should be sent to Ukraine in the next few days to work very closely with our Ukrainian partners."

What does Ukraine want?

In an interview with AFP, the head of President Zelensky’s administration, Igor Zhovkva, said: "We don't need peacekeepers, blue helmets, unarmed, or whatever."

Ukraine had accepted there would be no international troops on the contact line and that Kyiv would have to rely on its own armed forces.

However, a "reassurance force" along the lines explained by Mr Macron, would have to be willing to respond in critical situations, like missile and drone attacks.

"If European countries are serious about making their input, they should be really serious," said Mr Zhovkva, who took part in the Saudi Arabia negotiations.

"And it's not the [numbers of troops] which matter. It's also their readiness to fight, their readiness to defend, their readiness to be equipped, and their readiness to understand that Ukraine is an inevitable part of European security.

"Every soldier has to be ready to be engaged in real combat. That's what Ukrainians [have been] doing for more than three years."

Russian President Vladimir Putin has already said he would not countenance any European troops in Ukraine, either badged as NATO or UN troops.

Mr Macron last night issued a sharp denunciation of that pre-condition saying Russia would have no veto over Europe’s support for Ukraine.

The Trump administration is, however, still giving Mr Putin much benefit of the doubt.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has already said he would not countenance any European troops in Ukraine

Russia has been saying that the Black Sea deal is conditional on the dropping of banking and other sanctions, a position that was unequivocally rejected this morning by EU leaders, including Antonio Costa, the president of the European Council, the Taoiseach and Mr Starmer.

However, in Jamaica last night, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was sanguine about the Russian demands.


Read more: European 'reassurance force' to be sent to Ukraine after peace deal - Macron


"The Russians detailed a number of conditions that they want to see met…so, we're going to evaluate that. Some of those conditions include sanctions that are not ours. They belong to the European Union."

Mr Rubio said US officials would be "getting impressions" in order to "understand what the Russian position is or what their ask is in exchange. And then we'll present that to [President Trump], who will be the one to make a decision about what's the next step here."

In other words, the unity of western countries in imposing sanctions on Russia, which has largely held firm for three years, will now hinge on the whims of Donald Trump, who has made no secret of his impatience to get a deal done and to boost business deals with Moscow.