For many years the narrative that landlords were leaving the market in droves has been highlighted as an indicator of a dysfunctional rental sector.
It was repeated this week when Mary Conway, chairperson of lobby group Irish Property Owners Association, said: "There is no doubt that the rental market is in a crisis and current policies are driving landlords out of the sector."
"Excessive regulation and financial pressures" were to blame, she said.
But is the number of landlords declining?
This week the Residential Tenancies Board (RTB), the body which regulates the sector, said "private tenancy numbers rose by 7.6% annually to 240,964" in the last three months of 2024.
That was based on the number of lettings registered with the agency.
The organisation's director Rosemary Steen said the information "may challenge some common narratives on the housing sector".
The RTB's figures showed the number of private landlords had increased by 4.5% annually to 105,594 and the notices of termination, when a property is no longer let to a tenant, dropped 16%.
It indicates the number of landlords is growing and fewer are leaving the rental sector.
But it is not the full picture.
The RTB’s information is based on landlords who have registered with the organisation.
Registration is designed to cap rents and means property owners and renters are covered by a dispute resolution process.
There are other landlords operating in the black market who are not captured by the data.
So how many unregistered landlords are there?
One way to find out is to look at the Census conducted by the Central Statistics Office in 2022 and compare it to the RTB’s figures of that year.
In the Census householders indicate if they are renters or owner-occupiers.
The CSO compared the data and concluded there were 25,248 formal rental arrangements which had not been registered with the RTB in 2022.
Black market landlords
The RTB has been running a compliance campaign to encourage landlords to register.
It identified 1,100 unregistered operators in the last three months of 2024 and almost half of those contacted are now registering or are engaging.
So it is possible that at least some of the increase in registrations are black market landlords becoming compliant with the regulations and possibly paying tax for the first time.
The RTB said "that while some new tenancy registrations may be the result of unregistered landlords becoming registered, it is clear from the data that large professional landlords, primarily in Dublin, account for a significant proportion of new tenancy supply".
John-Mark McCafferty, CEO of housing charity Threshold, said some landlords "are quitting but some are coming into the market - there are more coming in than leaving".
He said a number of landlords have reached their 60s and are retiring, while there is a trend of more overseas investors purchasing properties.
The fact that the Revenue Commissioners and RTB are sharing data may be helping to increase the number of registrations, he believes.
Rental accommodation
Tenants can avail of €1,000 rent tax credit but to do so they must provide their landlord’s PPS number to the Revenue Commissioners.
That may also help to identify some tax-dodging property owners.
But Mr McCafferty said some renters are "afraid to raise the ire of landlords" by giving their details to the authorities.
Lorcan Sirr, Senior Lecturer at TU Dublin, said: "The requirement to register has brought more landlords to the surface."
He adds: "Unless you know the total number of landlords you can’t say if there is an increase in the supply in rental accommodation."
Even if the number of properties for rent is increasing, it would appear the rise is a drop in the ocean compared to the need for more rental accommodation.
Ronan Lyons, Associate Professor in Economics at Trinity College, says "with rents continuing to increase...and with a shortfall of at least 150,000 rental homes around the country - and perhaps as much as 200,000 - reform is needed sooner rather than later."
It is clear the overall number of landlords does not appear to be in decline.
However, the gap between the rental properties available and what is needed in the market remains as large as ever.
