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Relentless pressure ahead for new housing minister

James Browne previously served as a junior justice minister but is now the new Minister for Housing
James Browne previously served as a junior justice minister but is now the new Minister for Housing

When ministers are appointed to Cabinet, civil servants prepare reading material to brief them on the challenges lying ahead in their portfolios.

Officials in the Department of Housing might consider including Eoghan Murphy's brutally honest memoir 'Running From Office', in new housing minister James Browne’s briefing notes.

In his account of his own time in the ministry, Mr Murphy describes how his proposals for reform were shot down, his popularity slumped, and he was subjected to insults on the streets and online before sliding into a personal crisis.

"It would be hard to conclude that I had been a successful housing minister," he says, adding that he "failed to manage the politics of housing, within government and without".

With a homelessness crisis, a shortfall in new residential construction, soaring property prices and thousands of adult children living with parents, James Browne has the toughest job in the Cabinet.

As junior justice minister in the last Coalition, he successfully oversaw a major reform of the gambling sector including restrictions on advertising and the introduction of a regulator.

Perhaps the hardest part of that role was withstanding an intense lobbying onslaught from a highly organised sector which was strongly opposed to his reforms.

Eoghan Murphy during his time as housing minister in 2019

But the challenges in the Department of Housing will be in an entirely different league.

On the same day as the former barrister received his seal of office from President Michael D Higgins, official figures showed the number of homes built last year fell by more than 2,000 to 30,000. This was despite significant efforts to increase construction.

His predecessor Darragh O’Brien and then taoiseach Simon Harris had been confident in their predictions that housing completions could near 40,000 in 2024, despite data pointing to the contrary.

The latest figures were below the official Government target of 33,000 in the Housing for All plan.

The drop in housing output last year is a serious blow and bodes badly for the new Coalition, which has set itself a target of building 300,000 homes over the next five years.

It worsens the chronic lack of supply which has been adding to rapidly accelerating property prices, now rising by 9.4% per annum.

It was surprising that Taoiseach Micheál Martin chose James Browne, a politician who has never previously held a senior Cabinet position, to take on the most challenging portfolio.

He will face a bruising few years in the Dáil with the Opposition expected to table its own proposed legislation (called Private Members' bills) on housing almost every week.

It means there will be a robust debate as the minister usually rejects the Opposition’s ideas and defends the Government’s policies.

On the floor of the Dáil he will face Sinn Féin's Spokesperson on Housing Eoin Ó Broin, who is passionate, articulate and has considerable knowledge of the sector.

With the housing crisis showing no sign of improvement, the political pressure will be relentless for James Browne.

He will also have a barrage of TDs from all parties seeking to have issues resolved in their own constituencies.

Like Eoghan Murphy, he may discover that his Cabinet colleagues can be merciless too.

Many of them will seek to retain schemes which may be adding to galloping house price inflation.

Industry observers have serious reservations about the Help to Buy Scheme and First Homes Scheme which effectively sees the State help to fund first-time buyers.

While both are popular, they may be lending a hand to people who already have sufficient resources to buy a home.

Dismantling or even scaling back either scheme could be a political quagmire within the Coalition.

James Browne will also face the old problem of politicians trying to have it both ways: calling for more housing, while supporting objectors in their own constituencies who seek to thwart new developments.

The new minister will need to oversee a huge overhaul of the planning system - designed to sort out lengthy planning delays - after mammoth legislation to reform the system was passed by the Oireachtas late last year.

Many in the property industry are sceptical that the new law is going to deliver the necessary changes.

In an interview with RTÉ News this week, builder Rick Larkin of Twinlite was highly critical of continuous changes in government policies which he claimed were adding to housing problems.

He said this was deterring long-term investors from putting funds into residential construction.

James Browne needs to convince the property industry that he will provide a stable environment for investors.

Some builders are turning their attention away from residential construction and focusing on commercial development because housebuilding is becoming too unpredictable.

That is exactly what the Government needs to avoid.

James Browne is about to embark on the most consequential period in his political career as the Coalition seeks to overcome the housing crisis.

Whether he succeeds or fails, he will at least have the comfort of knowing he will have plenty of material for a memoir of his own.