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All eyes on who is getting what brief in the new Cabinet

Under the Constitution, a new cabinet can consist of at most 15 senior ministerial positions
Under the Constitution, a new cabinet can consist of at most 15 senior ministerial positions

The internal Leinster House corridor, which sits beside the Dáil chamber and stretches across to Government Buildings, is often jokingly referred to as the Bridge of Sighs and for good reason.

Over the decades, the great, the good and the soon-to-be-forgotten of Irish politics have skipped happily across the 50m walkway to meet their destiny, or been left dejected nearby, after not receiving the call to cross the bridge and serve in the ministerial ranks.

Political careers have been made and broken over that short journey.

And for some lucky TDs that date with destiny is now just a few short hours away, as the make-up of the new cabinet is set to be decided.

How many positions are there?

Under the Constitution, a new cabinet can consist of at most 15 senior ministerial positions.

It has already been agreed that none of those roles will go to the Regional Independents or other independents supporting the incoming government, meaning the 15 positions will be split between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.

As Fianna Fáil is the biggest party in the Dáil, the Programme for Government states that the Soldiers of Destiny will take eight of those senior ministries, leaving Fine Gael with seven.

Two of those positions have, in effect, already been decided, with Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin set to become Taoiseach and Fine Gael leader Simon Harris set to become Tánaiste, in addition to what is expected to be his appointment as Minister for Foreign Affairs, the position Mr Martin previously held.

Jack Chambers is as good as certain to switch from Finance to Public Expenditure and Reform

That leaves 13 other ministerial positions up for grabs.

A total of seven of these remaining 13 roles are earmarked for Fianna Fáil.

They are: the Departments of Public Expenditure and Reform; Justice; Social Protection; Housing; Transport; Higher Education; and Disabilities and Children.

The remaining six have been set aside for Fine Gael.

They are: the Departments of Finance; Agriculture; Education; Health; Enterprise and Employment and Tourism, Culture, Arts, Gaeltacht, Sport and Media.

A small caveat to all of this exists in the fact that the creation of a new full ministerial position for Integration or Migration has not been categorically ruled out.

It is highly likely that integration and migration will be subsumed into a newly named Department of Justice and Domestic Affairs, moving from its current position in the Department of Children, Equality, Disability, Integration and Youth.

But if it is not merged, it would mean that under the Constitution, one of the existing cabinet roles may need to be dropped, with the possibility, albeit slim, that Higher Education could come back under the wing of Education itself.

What positions are lying empty

Deciding who will sit beside them in the remaining 13 cabinet roles is a difficult task for Micheál Martin and Simon Harris, who will be keen to keep friends close and potential future enemies closer over the coming months and years.

But it is all made slightly easier by the fact that four senior cabinet positions are currently empty.

Norma Foley is rumoured to be in line for the Social Protection brief

Former Fianna Fáil TD Stephen Donnelly's non-election in November; the retirement of former Green Party leader Eamon Ryan and Fine Gael's Heather Humphreys, the non-election of party colleague Catherine Martin, and the banishing to the opposition benches of the lone Green general election survivor Roderic O'Gorman means there is plenty of scope for change, with the Departments of Health; Social Protection and Rural Affairs; Transport; Tourism, Culture, Arts, Gaeltacht, Sport and Media; and Children all in need of a minister.

So, who gets what?

But enough of all that technical mumbo jumbo. The real question on everyone's lips is who is getting what.

The reality of the situation is that, for the next few hours at least, only Micheál Martin, Simon Harris and their closest backroom advisors really know for sure.

That is not stopping intense speculation around Leinster House, though, with the informed rumour mill indicating the following promotions and demotions may be on the cards.

The seven senior ministerial roles left for Fianna Fáil once Micheál Martin's position as Taoiseach is excluded are likely to be fought out between Jack Chambers, Norma Foley, Darragh O'Brien, Dara Calleary, James Lawless, James Browne, Mary Butler, Jim O’Callaghan, Timmy Dooley and Charlie McConalogue.

Similarly, the six senior ministerial roles put aside for Fine Gael once Simon Harris's position as Tánaiste and most likely Minister for Foreign Affairs is expected to be filled by some of Peter Burke, Helen McEntee, Hildegarde Naughton, Jennifer Carroll MacNeill, Martin Heydon and Patrick O’Donovan.

Jack Chambers is as good as certain to switch from Finance to Public Expenditure and Reform, as these roles swap between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.

The moving of Education to a Fine Gael-held department means a new role will be needed for Norma Foley, who is rumoured to be in line for Social Protection.

Current transport junior minister James Lawless is also in contention for a promotion to the full Transport portfolio, which has now been vacated by the retired Eamon Ryan, although Dara Calleary is also being talked of as being another contender for the role.

Should Deputy Calleary not be promoted to Transport, he could be moved to Housing, that is if current Housing inhabitant Darragh O’Brien is also moved to a new home, with Justice a possibility.

Current junior minister Mary Butler is also being tipped for a promotion to Disability and Children.

Simon Harris is almost certain to take up the Foreign Affairs portfolio

That leaves the Higher Education, and the Government Chief Whip positions still open.

Charlie McConalogue, Jim O’Callaghan, Timmy Dooley and James Browne are all rumoured to be part of the cabinet conversation.

But Deputy O’Callaghan's decision not to accept a junior minister role in the Department of Justice five years ago is unlikely to have been entirely forgotten by Micheál Martin, while Deputy Dooley's autumn 2019 role in the Dáil electronic voting row may make a Government Chief Whip role tricky.

For Fine Gael, a similarly lengthy but not exhaustive list of potential ministers is also being rumoured.

Once Simon Harris takes up his role as Tánaiste, he is almost certain to take up the Foreign Affairs portfolio.

Like Jack Chambers in Fianna Fáil, Paschal Donohoe in Fine Gael is then expected to swap roles and return to Finance.

Jennifer Carroll MacNeill, who formed part of the Fine Gael negotiating team during the government formation talks, is rumoured to be in the running to take up the Health position, a situation that, due to the closeness of her Dún Laoghaire constituency to Neale Richmond's Dublin Rathdown constituency makes a promotion for Deputy Richmond less likely.

Martin Heydon is also being mentioned in conversations about Agriculture, while Peter Burke is, according to rumours in Fine Gael at least, likely to remain in Enterprise and Employment, leaving two senior ministerial positions among a minimum of three further names.

It is expected that Helen McEntee will remain in cabinet with a move to Education potentially on the cards as Fianna Fáil now takes over the Justice portfolio, while Hildegarde Naughton or Patrick O’Donovan could be in line for the Tourism, Culture, Arts, Gaeltacht, Sport and Media role vacated by the unelected former Green TD Catherine Martin.

All of this, it should be emphasised, comes with a significant health warning: Cabinet positions are never guaranteed, predictions are just predictions.

We will only know definitively who gets what when the new ministers trail into the Dáil tomorrow evening behind Taoiseach Micheál Martin.

Cheers or sighs

What it all means is that the hopeful TDs walking across to Government Buildings will either be breathing a sigh of relief or one of pessimism once their date with destiny takes place.

The original Bridge of Sighs of course, is in Venice, Italy.

It connects the New Prison to the interrogation rooms in the Doge's Palace and was the last image of freedom a prisoner would have before being sent to jail.

Whether the TDs crossing the Leinster House equivalent tomorrow will feel imprisoned or liberated will be something that becomes apparent as they settle into their new high-profile roles over the coming weeks and grapple with the huge challenges that lie ahead.