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Coalition leaders in search of harmony over election date

Coalition leaders Roderic O'Gorman, Simon Harris and Micheál Martin (Pic: RollingNews.ie)
Coalition leaders Roderic O'Gorman, Simon Harris and Micheál Martin (Pic: RollingNews.ie)

The ancient Chinese philosopher, Confucius, encapsulated perfectly what a successful coalition government must strive to be. He said: "Be in harmony, yet be different."

Budget 2025 is a good example of that: Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and the Green Party drafted the document together, but each could point to elements which reflected their individual positions.

Yet coalition governments are finite political agreements, and time is rapidly running out on this one.

There were clear indications this week just how hard it is to live in harmony when there's a political imperative to define yourself to the electorate.

Tánaiste Micheál Martin decided to pitch his tent on the high moral ground at the Dublin Chamber's annual dinner on Thursday night - castigating the media over the ongoing general election speculation.

He bemoaned a scenario where "... what would normally be viewed as nothing more than idle corridor gossip is being elevated to headline news".

"I have never believed that political spin or the endless search for soft coverage is anything other than a distraction"

The Tánaiste could have stopped there and solely focused on Budget 2025 - given the week that was in it, and the audience he was addressing.

Instead, he ploughed on for another 20 paragraphs about the general election - a decision he knew full well would lead to even more coverage about the Coalition's looming date with destiny.

He declared to the diners: "I have never believed that political spin or the endless search for soft coverage is anything other than a distraction from the real business of fulfilling the democratic mandate of the people."

Who the Tánaiste might have been talking about with that remark is unknown, as he continued on briskly to observe that previous coalitions were "known for being unstable" but, he contended, this Government was formed "on the very clear basis that we would not allow that to happen".

The former coalition leaders insisted on stability for the government to run its full term

The problem here is that the Coalition was formed by Micheál Martin, Leo Varadkar and Eamon Ryan, but is now led by Micheál Martin, Simon Harris and Roderic O'Gorman.

What held in 2020 is not necessarily what holds in 2024.

Maybe that's why he quickly moved on: "At the start of the Government, and when key changes happened, the three-party leaders reaffirmed each of our commitment to a process for completing our mandate. I can tell you equally clearly that nothing has changed. There have been no discussions about finishing our mandate early."

One was left with the impression that the Tánaiste had two objectives: publicly reminding his fellow Coalition leaders about the commitments they gave to him, while also trying to calm speculation that a general election was imminent.

There may have been a third objective, but we'll come to that.

The bit the Tánaiste, Minister for Foreign Affairs and Defence, and Fianna Fáil leader didn't mention in his speech was that, under Ireland's Constitution, it is the sole prerogative of the Taoiseach to decide when an election is held.

It's not a collective decision as to when the Coalition has fulfilled its mandate - unless Simon Harris chooses to. To date, he hasn't.

This is an important point when you consider that this Government is not going back to the people as a collective seeking re-election - each party will fight the campaign on its own two feet.

It just so happened, the very next day, that Taoiseach Simon Harris was doing a round of media interviews.

Taoiseach Simon Harris said it was his judgement when to seek a dissolution of the Dáil

There was little surprise when he skirted around the question of when the general election might be held - saying it would be called at "the right and appropriate time".

But the Taoiseach did choose to give an insight into how he views the decision-making process.

He told Pat Kenny on Newstalk: "The Constitution is very clear. I get to seek a dissolution of the Dáil from the President of Ireland. It's my judgement as to when to do that, and when to do that in the best interests of our country. I said in quite a clear manner that I want this Government to continue to finish its work."

Just in case anyone hadn't heard him, he stated later: "It is exclusively my prerogative in the Constitution. I don't think any Taoiseach has ever been asked in the past to kind of provide an hourly update on the matter. But of course, I won't be surprising my Coalition colleagues and we work very well together."

It seemed to be a push back to what the Tánaiste had been saying the previous night, so he was asked if that was the case at a subsequent event in Wicklow.

He replied: "I don't speak to my Coalition colleagues like that ... It is constitutionally my prerogative as to when to seek a dissolution of the Dáil, that is true. That's something I take very seriously. It's a judgement call that every Taoiseach has to exercise. But I also want to do things in a respectful matter."

What about that accusation, journalists asked the Taoiseach, where the Tánaiste spoke of unnamed politicians engaging in "political spin or the endless search for soft coverage". Could the Tánaiste have possibly been talking about him?

The Taoiseach replied, quick as a Katie Taylor jab: "Well I doubt they were aimed at myself. From my experience of Micheál Martin, he is good at both governing and campaigning and I like to think I am as well. One is required to do the other."

'Political tension'

We can expect this dynamic to continue over the coming weeks - a certain degree of tension within the Coalition, as individual parties seek to define themselves.

There was evidence of that, at a very senior level, when the Tánaiste was asked last Monday about a call from Minister for Social Protection Heather Humphreys for a €15, rather than the previously indicated €12, increase in core social welfare rates in Budget 2025.

With a furrowed brow, Micheál Martin knocked his Cabinet colleague's idea on the head in an unusually forthright fashion: "There was never €15 tabled - ever - at any meeting I attended. So, I think there's been a bit of a phoney ... sort of spinning stuff going on about this. And I think it's completely overplayed."

The tension is also in evidence further down the political chain.

For example, the Fine Gael candidate in Cork South Central, Cllr Úna McCarthy, issued a statement after Budget 2025 to say the €9m allocated for schools to purchase mobile phone pouches "could have been put to better use".

She added that Minister for Education Norma Foley, who just happens to be from Fianna Fáil, is "... behind the curve on this, as many schools have already rolled out their own initiatives".

That's not to overstate things.

'Key legislation'

The Coalition held together well on Budget 2025, and the three parties will undoubtedly ensure it becomes law via the passing of the Social Welfare Bill and Finance Bill.

Progress is also being made in advancing, what the Tánaiste called, "key legislation".

The mammoth bill to overhaul Ireland's planning system will be passed next week. The Gambling Regulation Bill will conclude in the Seanad on Tuesday and could be back in the Dáil by 16 October.

The Tánaiste has also referenced the importance of the Defamation Bill, but that seems a bit further off - possibly only getting to committee stage by next month, which could be too late.

Similarly, the Mental Health Bill still does not have a date for committee stage debate - Minister of State Mary Butler is stewarding the complex legislation though, with its 202 sections.

Sinn Féin's Spokesperson on Mental Health Mark Ward told me he was very doubtful this would be signed into law, even if the election was held in February.

"We have to show that we can be true to our word in putting the people before politics"

Which brings us back to the political calculation and machinations regarding the general election.

Maybe part of the reason why Tánaiste Micheál Martin said what he said this week was that he was positioning himself in case a general election is called by Taoiseach Simon Harris before February.

The Tánaiste has long stated that the election should be held in 2025.

Does he want himself and his party to claim the mantle of being consistent and disciplined in Government?

There seemed to be an element of that when he spoke to the Dublin Chambers dinner on Thursday night about fulfilling the Coalition's mandate when he declared: "Most of all, we have to show that we can be true to our word in putting the people before politics."

Simon Harris has to weigh up everything. Only he knows what's going to happen next.

Maybe he didn't read what the Tánaiste had to say.

Maybe he wasn't thinking of Confucius and harmony either.

Maybe he was instead leafing through the masterpiece entitled The Art of War, written by another ancient Chinese theorist, Sun Tzu.

He wrote: "Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move - fall like a thunderbolt."