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If Boris Johnson seeks return as PM many pitfalls lie in wait

Boris Johnson has been endorsed by two cabinet members including Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg
Boris Johnson has been endorsed by two cabinet members including Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg

The idea of Boris Johnson returning as Prime Minister seemed ludicrous only a couple of days ago. Now it seems a distinct possibility.

There is the all important factor of momentum behind the idea. Starting with a groundswell of popular opinion, especially in the north of England, Mr Johnson has been endorsed by two cabinet members including hard Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg while a third – popular defence secretary Ben Wallace said he was "leaning towards" backing Johnson.

A lot of people who thought Mr Johnson should never have been forced to go in the first place are coming out of the woodwork.

Northern MP Karl McCartney was on BBC Radio blaming the "media and the Labour Party" for getting rid of Mr Johnson.

The Lincoln MP had to be repeatedly reminded that it was Conservative Party members who ousted him.

There were writings on the wall that Mr Johnson intended a return.

In his final speech outside No. 10 Downing Street, he likened himself to the Roman Dictator Cincinnatus and would "return to his plough".

At first glance it seemed as if he was talking about life on the backbenches.

Boris and Carrie Johnson attend the State Funeral of Queen Elizabeth II last month

It was quickly pointed out that Cincinnatus did retire from power but returned as dictator to save Rome in an emergency. As a former classics scholar, Mr Johnson would be well aware of that.

And it was pointed out that his hero Winston Churchill returned for a second term as prime minister. Mr Johnson's last words as leader to the Commons were "hasta la vista, baby" from the Terminator movies.

When Mr Johnson’s closest allies backed Liz Truss for leader, former advisor Dominic Cummings - who has become Mr Johnson’s fiercest critic - sensed a plot.

He tweeted that the reason Mr Johnson was backing Ms Truss was because he "thinks she’ll blow & he can make a comeback".

However far-fetched that theory is, it is pretty close to coming true.

It may be hard for people in Ireland to understand why people in Britain would continue to support Boris Johnson after everything that has happened but he does generate an idea of "can-do" optimism or "boosterism"

For Britain right now a lot of people could use some optimism.

The cost-of-living crisis exacerbated by the disastrous mini-Budget has left a lot of people uncertain of their future. There has also been a fair amount of social media posts and memes asking what exactly has Britain gained from Brexit.

Mr Johnson was always very good at conveying the idea that problems like Brexit or the Covid-19 pandemic could be easily solved.

The argument that the result did not always match the promise is not accepted by his supporters. It is very tempting for many people to believe in his image of hope, because the alternative seems to be austerity.

Liz Truss resigned as British Prime Minister after just six weeks in office

The Conservative Party membership believed in Trussonomics during the last leadership campaign, even though the former chancellor of the exchequer - the person who had actually looked at the books - said Ms Truss’ plans were "fairytale".

Nevertheless, the party membership preferred to believe the fairytale.

However, there are barriers to Mr Johnson achieving a similar result this time.

First of all there is the deep-seated antipathy that many in the Conservative Party have towards him, including those like David Davies who come from the same wing of the party and know him well.

Some of the comments freely given about him by his own colleagues show a depth of disdain you do not get in Irish politics. Around a dozen MPs have said they will leave the party if he is elected prime minister.

While the received wisdom is that Mr Johnson won a massive majority in the 2019 election, polling experts say he was never that popular and it was the unpopularity of Jeremy Corbyn that won the election for the Conservatives.

In fact, the latest YouGov opinion poll shows most people still do not favour the former prime minister.

Only 27% of respondents would be "very happy" or "fairly happy" if he was to return as prime minister while 52% would be "very unhappy" or "fairly unhappy" (including 43% very unhappy).

Only 27% of respondents to a poll would be 'happy' if he was to return as prime minister

The other problem is the economy.

Mr Johnson was notoriously averse to spending cuts when in power and the current Chancellor of the Exchequer believes that decisions of "eye watering difficulty" need to be made.

The latest figures show that monthly borrowing hit £20bn (€22.9bn) in September in the UK which is £3bn (€3.44bn) more than economists expected.

Mr Johnson will also be aware 148 backbenchers voted no confidence in him, and that more than 50 MPs resigned from his government only a matter of months ago.

It is also not certain that he would get the 100 nominations required, and the fact that he had not publicly declared he was running by Friday night might be significant.

There were reports in a number of British newspapers that Mr Johnson had being making overtures to Rishi Sunak, offering him the Chancellor if he backed his bid.

Mr Sunak is reported to have countered with the offer of Home Secretary if Mr Johnson was to back him.

Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson have reportedly made offers to support one another

There is a question over whether Mr Johnson will run at all. He would not want to run if he thought he was going to be defeated, and the current declarations would suggest Mr Sunak has more MPs behind him.

For some the idea of a Boris Johnson comeback is a fairytale come true, but maybe for too many others it would be a horror show.