With all the speculation about a change of leader in Fine Gael, or even a general election happening soon, it is probably worth reminding ourselves that there are other things going on in the world of politics that cry out for stability – if only for a few weeks.
To be specific, those few weeks that constitute the month of March.
Here is what's happening:
2 March
There will be an election in Northern Ireland for the Assembly, from which is drawn the executive that forms the devolved government there. On top of the historical divisions, Brexit is a new wedge to divide the two main parties in the north. Counting begins the next day, results by Friday evening.
But putting an executive together in a short timeframe will not be easy. It may well be the case that a decision on holding another election or returning to direct rule from London will have to be made in March.
8 March
The first British budget after the Brexit vote, the first by Chancellor Philip Hammond, a chance to see what way the UK is heading in terms of government spending (under severe pressure), tax policy (ditto) and the public finances (er ... ditto).
If last October's Irish budget was about Brexit-proofing the economy, you can bet the British one will be too.
9 March
There will be an EU summit in Brussels. It is the regular spring economic summit, but this one is likely to be overshadowed by Brexit, and there is a strong possibility that British Prime Minister Theresa May will use it to formally submit the UK’s Article 50 request to leave the EU.
This is the trigger to start the two year process of negotiating the terms of the UK's exit from the bloc. The negotiations will be carried out by a commission taskforce led by Chief EU negotiator, Michel Barnier.
The first task for the EU 27 leaders is to agree on a negotiating mandate for Mr Barnier and his officials. This will respond to the terms set out in the British letter, and set forth EU aims. It will take a while to agree
15 March
The Ides of March. Well, why not.
15 March
Netherlands General Election – Jeroen Dijsselbloem’s Labour Party is in line for a kicking in this election, so he might end up losing his job as finance minister and most likely as head of the Eurogroup as well.
Having an input on who will be chairing the meetings of Euro Area finance ministers probably falls into the category of top-level national interest. Especially with the Greek debt saga, Italian Banking crisis and interest rate "normalisation" all in play right now.
17 March
The by now traditional gift of the bowl of shamrock to the President of the United States of America. A key meeting to set the tenor of Donald Trump’s relations with Ireland and possibly Europe for the duration of the 45th presidency. And a crucial, precious round of contacts with other US political and business leaders.
A vital set of meetings, as the new administration winds up for a long anticipated go at reforming the US corporation tax code. No other European country gets an annual round of top level access like St Patrick's Day. Unmissable.
24 March
A special summit in Rome of the EU 27 to mark the 60th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome. It will also see an effective relaunch of the union for a post-Brexit world. This is part of the "future of the European Union" that Ireland has set as one of its four key objectives in the Brexit process.
The UK is leaving, we are staying – but what are we staying in? Rome could be a key date, and it is one that is mostly overlooked in the current Fine Gael leadership frenzy, and the enormous concentration on the Brexit process.
30 March
European Peoples Party Congress, Malta. Three years ago, Enda Kenny hosted the EPP congress in Dublin. It was there that Jean Claude Juncker was chosen as the Conservative "list leader" for the European Parliament elections – on the understanding that the party that won the most votes would get first crack at nominating them as President of the European Commission.
The beaten candidate that day in Dublin was Michel Barnier, now the Commission Brexit negotiator; Antonio Tajani, the new President of the European Parliament is EPP. So is Donald Tusk, the President of the European Council. Angela Merkel is also EPP, as well as six other heads of government, seven deputy heads of government, and ten leaders of the opposition. and a bunch of European Commissioners.
This is the main vehicle for Enda Kenny's much vaunted "European Connections and contacts". A party leader needs to be there at this crucial time of Brexit.
31 March
UK’s self imposed deadline for triggering Brexit talks. Agreeing a negotiating mandate for Michel Barnier and his team. This is probably going to require a special summit of the 27 EU members in late April. It is this mandate that will drive the Article 50 talks for the next year and a half, so it is a really important document for Ireland to leave its impression on.
Given all this, the Fine Gael party has to decide exactly when it would be a good time to change leader. Or have a general election. Or both.
Beware the Ides of March ...
