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Declining birth rate could mean 'vicious downward cycle' for population

NESC says Ireland's demographic profile is undergoing rapid and profound change as birth rate falls and population ages
NESC says Ireland's demographic profile is undergoing rapid and profound change as birth rate falls and population ages

An advisory body has warned that Ireland's population is at risk of what it called a "vicious downward cycle" due to a declining birth rate.

The statement is contained in a report by the National Economic and Social Council (NESC), which researched recent demographic shifts across the country.

It calls on the Government to begin planning for any negative impacts from a downward cycle before it becomes too difficult to reverse.

The report says that Ireland's demographic profile is undergoing rapid and profound change as the birth rate falls and the population ages.

It means an ageing and declining population will put increasing pressure on a society, with fewer workers and tax revenues that are needed to support investment in infrastructure and services.

However, one of the report's authors, Dr Gráinne Collins, said that while these shifts are inevitable, they can be guided and do not have to be destabilising.

The report outlines a potential "virtuous cycle", as long as Ireland urgently begins preparing economically and socially for these shifts.

It urges the Government to ring-fence funds to build a cushion against rising future costs without cuts to services or tax hikes.

The report also calls for pension reform, a proactive approach to migration, balanced regional development, family support policies and increased participation in the workforce.

The report concludes that if these challenges are met head-on, future generations could inherit an opportunity instead of a crisis.

NESC Director Dr Larry O'Connell said the patterns that Ireland is experiencing are being seen across Europe.

"While Ireland has undergone remarkable change in recent decades, it would be unrealistic to assume this pace can continue indefinitely," he said.

"Demographic trends will shape living standards, labour markets and the sustainability of public finances for many years to come, and a rapidly ageing population will place growing pressure on our care systems."

Dr O’Connell added: "Long-term planning is therefore essential as we confront these profound shifts.

"With a positive and ambitious approach, Ireland can ensure that demographic change becomes a springboard for a more cohesive and inclusive society."