skip to main content

After a decade of difficulty, is Labour back on an upward trend?

Ivana Bacik has been leader of the Labour Party for almost four years
Ivana Bacik has been leader of the Labour Party for almost four years

Mark Twain once wrote that rumours of my demise are greatly exaggerated.

And while the late 19th century rebuke over his supposed death is sometimes overused, you could hardly forgive the Labour Party for wanting to roll it out one more time at its annual conference in Limerick city this weekend.

Since being voted out of power almost a decade ago in 2016's General Election, Labour has had what can politely be described as some difficult moments.

Three leadership changes; seeing its 37 Dáil seats in the 2011 'Gilmore Gale' drop down to just six in 2020; concerns it was being usurped by other left-leaning rivals; and conversations about what its future might be were the hallmark of much of that period.

But, in recent years, those tricky times have started to change.

Ivana Bacik has been party leader for almost four years, bringing a solid platform to the party alongside a practical view of the next steps she wants it to take.

The party has now had a number of recent electoral relative successes including the local and European elections in June 2024 and the General Election 12 months ago, when it almost doubled its seats from six to 11 - six of whom are first-time TDs.

And, after Deputy Bacik won an officially private but more often than not public debate with certain colleagues over whether to back Catherine Connolly's presidential campaign, the party has in recent weeks been among those able to bask in the reflected glory of the former Independent TD's success, leading to debate over whether the united left platform which supported her would work or not in more competitive grassroots political contests.

The local, European, general and presidential elections, of course, have all taken place since Labour's previous annual conference in March 2024.

Labour Party representatives at their annual conferece last year

So, after a tumultuous 20 months and consistent talk of the potential - both positive and negative - of a mooted long-term united left platform with other parties, what better time to check the pulse of a party which its supporters believe is beginning to get a fresh breath of life.

Presidential campaign

One of the main issues likely to be raised this weekend is the obvious one given Tuesday's inauguration at Dublin Castle: the Presidential Election and Labour's role in it.

The subject is certain to be discussed at the conference, with the party of the view that it can benefit from both the 14-year tenure of its former minister Michael D Higgins at Áras an Uachtaráin, and from the success of Catherine Connolly's campaign.

Ivana Bacik will certainly have reason to do so, seeing as she was among the first to push for left-leaning parties to rally behind a single candidate in the presidential race.

Her open letter in January to the Social Democrats and Greens asking them to take part in "a broad conversation on our respective approaches to the presidential election in order to explore the potential benefits of a common approach to that contest", is ultimately what kicked off the multi-party plan.

But while that should not be forgotten, Labour may have to tiptoe around other aspects of the discussion when the issue is inevitably raised this weekend too.

It is no secret that not everyone in the party agreed with the decision to back the now President Connolly's campaign, which Labour only decided to formally support after a private meeting of its parliamentary party - and much hand-wringing by certain members - in late July.

Labour's Alan Kelly (L) went against his party over its presidential election strategy

One of those to make it clear, more than once, that they did not support the decision was party TD and former leader Alan Kelly.

But at a broader membership level he was not entirely alone, a reality acknowledged by Deputy Bacik at the party's think-in in September.

That underlying situation and the fact President Connolly previously left the Labour party during the economic crash, claiming it had "lost its soul", means there is a certain complication for Labour when it comes to her successful presidential campaign.

But, provided it is leaned into carefully, Labour's role in that result can and should be seen as a success for the party, and in the outcome so far of its leader's decision.

A year on from the General Election

A far less complicated success story for Labour since its last annual conference in early 2024 is the local, European and general election results.

After a decade of descending seat numbers, last year saw the party stem the tide at council level with its seat numbers falling by just one, from 57 to 56.

But it was in the European parliament election, where Aodhán Ó Ríordáin became the party's first MEP in 10 years when he won his seat in the Dublin constituency, and the subsequent General Election, where the party's return to relative electoral health has been most apparent.

It is now almost exactly 12 months since last November's election, when Labour increased its seat numbers from 6 to 11, with a number of its new first-time TDs making their mark so far.

That new batch of first-time TDs including housing spokesperson Conor Sheehan, education spokesperson Eoghan Kenny, tourism and employment spokesperson George Lawlor, arts and media spokesperson Rob O’Donoghue, climate spokesperson Ciaran Ahern and social protection spokesperson Mark Wall have made regular contributions in both the Dáil and on media programmes.

Aodhán Ó Ríordáin (white shirt) became the party's first MEP for a decade

And their presence has helped the party to turn a page on its more difficult post-2016 election years.

That change hasn't quite resulted in a rush of new support in opinion polls just yet, with recent polls suggesting Labour remains at in or around 5%, below rival the Social Democrats and overshadowed by Sinn Féin.

But the fact remains, Labour has almost doubled its Dáil seat numbers since the last time it held an annual conference, a situation its members - including the now enlarged parliamentary party - are likely to try to make much of this weekend.

United left, for now

What Labour and others do with that relative success though is what will be just as strongly discussed by party members this weekend.

One of the most significant developments in left-wing politics in recent months has been the change in parties viewing a "united left" platform as aspirational to one that is now proven - at least to some - to be based on practical reality too.

Catherine Connolly's victory in the Presidential Election, and the joint action taken by parties during the Dáil speaking rights row at the start of the year, has for some had a galvanising effect on "the left" in Ireland.

At least, that is, in public.

While much of the hope of this point of view is also being expressed in private by parties, it is also consistently coming with the caveat that being on the same side to support a candidate in a blue sky election or on an ethical Dáil point (which also benefits everyone involved) is not quite the same as doing so in the bare-knuckle boxing arena of other elections.

That caveat is in part based on the belief that the biggest party in any combined coalition, in this case Sinn Féin, could potentially benefit most from such an arrangement; that individual parties could risk losing their identity, or their seats, in constituencies being targeted by rival parties; and that the varying views among left-leaning parties mean there is no definitive "the left" point of view.

Catherine Connolly is joined by (l to r) Paul Murphy, Senator Eileen Flynn, Holly Cairns, Mary Lou McDonald and Marie Sherlock at the launch of her presidential campaign, Guth na nDaoine, at The Complex, Smithfield
The 'united left' backed Catherine Connolly's presidential campaign

But among others, there is an equal sense that a loosely linked united left approach where parties campaign individually but leave open the possibility of aligning once election results are known has significant potential.

The first real post-presidential election test of this approach in the real world of head-to-head politics will come in the upcoming Galway West Dáil by-election to fill the seat now vacated by Catherine Connolly.

Already, a number of parties have made it clear they will run their own candidate in that campaign, including Sinn Féin, Labour and a strong likelihood of the Social Democrats and People Before Profit-Solidarity following suit.

Labour hasn't yet decided who will be its candidate, with that decision due to be made by the party's local membership in the coming months.

However, there is significant discussion over the possibility of current councillor and 2024 General Election candidate Helen Ogbu potentially being its standard bearer when the embryonic united left platform meets its first real practical political test in that upcoming by-election campaign.

Today’s policies

But let's put the crystal ball to one side for now and concentrate on what Labour will be publicly talking about this weekend.

At today's one-day annual conference at the Radisson Blu Hotel in Limerick city, Labour is expected to focus in particular on housing and the need to provide people with the security that their future remains in Ireland.

That is no surprise given the fact local TD Conor Sheehan is the party's housing spokesperson; the ongoing housing crisis; and the publication of the Government's housing plan on Thursday, which aims to build 300,000 homes by the end of the decade but has removed annual targets.

Other policies expected to be emphasised by Labour this weekend are climate, social affairs and migration, all of which are likely to play a role in Ivana Bacik's leader's address, which will be broadcast on RTÉ News at 6.30pm.

Those issues have been long-held priorities for Labour, and as such their inclusion in the party's annual conference is unlikely to surprise anyone this weekend.

Instead, how the party promotes its positions on the issues, and whether it links in with other left-leaning parties, or emphasises its differences to recent political partners, will be what is most under the spotlight this weekend for a party which after a decade of difficulty believes it is now firmly back on an upward trend.