Ireland is failing to reach its climate targets, with emissions during the first carbon budget period - which runs until the end of this year - too high.
The Climate Change Advisory Council (CCAC) says this is because Ireland relies too much on expensive fossil fuels.
The National Climate plan for the 2021-2025 carbon budget, set a cap of 295 million tons of Carbon Dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2 Eq), but emissions will run 10 Mt over.
The CCAC says these excess emissions will have to be added to the cuts required in the second carbon budget which covers the years 2026-2030.
This will make it very difficult for Ireland to meet its legally binding 2030 Climate commitments and could result in fines of up to €26 billion.
Marie Donnelly Chair of the CCAC said the fines are not the only cost.
"We have the opportunity and the resources to transform Ireland, both in terms of reducing emissions and preparing for future climate events. We must act now because if we don't, we will pay the financial and societal price by losing out on secure and affordable energy, a healthier and more sustainable society, both today, and for future generations."
The CCAC’s Annual Cross Sectoral Review for 2025 published today, says Irish taxpayers have subsidised fossil fuels by €4.7 billion in the last five years and this has impeded the transition to a cleaner more efficient economy.
It singles out Transport and Agriculture, which together account for 55% of emissions, as failing to make the required cuts.
The CCAC calls for "increased expenditure on public transport ensuring efficient, reliable and timely services, increased grants for less expensive electric vehicles (EVs) and the rapid implementation of a demand management strategy to help drive down emissions in this sector".
It highlights the importance of compact development with new housing built on brownfield sites and sustainable communities built within the limits of existing towns, cities and villages. It says this is needed to reduce future demand for transport.
The report proposes bundled grants or incentives for consumers to adopt technologies such as solar panels, heat pumps and EVs together "leveraging the synergies between these technologies to accelerate decarbonisation while supporting energy affordability and grid stability".
It warns the subsidies should be targeted at those most in need to ensure a Just Transition.
The Council says it is "deeply disappointed" by Ireland’s poor record on transposing EU climate directives into national law and calls for the Government to ensure this is addressed well before Ireland’s EU Presidency in the second half of next year.
It argues that failure to do so would cause considerable reputational damage.
