The fishing industry has called for trade sanctions against non-EU countries overfishing mackerel - one of Ireland's most valuable fish stocks.
A spokesperson for the European Commission told RTÉ News that mackerel fishing "would almost certainly" be stopped within two years if agreement is not reached during upcoming coastal states talks.
Last week, the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) advised the commission to cut the total allowable catch of mackerel by 70% next year.
It is estimated that this will cost the Irish fishing sector between €60-80 million.
A spokesperson for the European Commission told RTÉ News that there was an urgent need to bring fishing mortality down to the catch limit advised by ICES.
The scientific advice will be discussed next week by the coastal states group of EU, UK, Norway, Faroes, Iceland and Greenland, that meet annually under the auspices of the North East Atlantic Fisheries Commission.
The negotiations are expected to be highly charged, and agreeing on quota that protect stocks, while maintaining economic viability, will be challenging.
Some non-EU coastal states have set their own mackerel quotas over the past few years, known as unilateral quotas.
The ICES advice said the sum of the "unilateral quotas for mackerel has resulted in catches that have exceeded the scientific advice by, on average, 39% since 2010".
The commission spokesperson said that immediate and concrete action is needed, starting with a "comprehensive sharing arrangement.".
The spokesperson said that the commission is very concerned with "the prospect of continued overfishing and arrangements based on quotas inflated unilaterally by some parties".
They said if a comprehensive sharing arrangement does not materialise during the talks that the scientific recommendation for the mackerel stock in 2027 would almost certainly be zero catches.
The commission acknowledged that such a move would have "tragic repercussions on those whose lives depend upon the mackerel fishery".
They have asked that all coastal states continue to work together in the coming days "to find an agreement".
Commission statement does not provide much comfort – KFO
The Chief Executive of the Killybegs Fishermen’s Organisation, Dominic Rihan, said the commission statement did not provide fishermen "with much comfort".
Mr Rihan said the commission statement "merely reiterates the need for a sharing arrangement without any indication what will happen if no agreement is reached".
He said the statement "articulates all the problems and the ultimate outcome quite well, but it does not show any commitment to act".
Call for trade sanctions if overfishing continues
Mr Rihan said there is a real danger that even if a total allowable catch for mackerel is agreed that other coastal states "will continue to set unilateral quotas and overfish, leading to the collapse of the stock".
He said if there is "no prospect of the other States falling into line, then the commission need to act in the form of trade sanctions and rolling back of access granted to non-EU vessels in other fisheries".
"Additionally, given the scale of losses the Irish (€60- €80m) and EU pelagic fleets are now facing because of the actions of these other states, the commission need to bring in a support package to stop the pelagic fleets going out of business".
Chief Executive of the Irish Fish Producers Organisation, Aodh O'Donnell, reiterated the calls for EU trade sanctions against nations engaged in overfishing.
"Without sanctions, these coastal states will fish this stock to collapse...years of unchecked overfishing by Norway, Iceland and the Faroes and the Russian Federation have pushed this stock to the brink."
Mr O'Donnell has urged the EU to take drastic actions to ensure the viability of the European fleet and the sustainability of fish stocks.
"That means imposing immediate sanctions, suspending access to EU waters and markets for rogue states, and demanding a new enforceable comprehensive sharing arrangement based on fairness and long-term stock sustainability."
Mr O'Donnell said Norway, the Faroes and the UK failed to sign up to an emergency compromise EU Proposal during last month’s EU-coastal states talks in Clonakilty.
"If Brussels keeps appeasing those who break the rules, Ireland’s pelagic industry will surely collapse."
A meeting of the pelagic fishing industry with the Minister of State for Fisheries Timmy Dooley in Killybegs last Sunday heard the sector was at "a cliff-edge".
Fish processors in Killybegs called for "big political support at both the national and European level".
Mr Dooley said Ireland has raised "the overfishing of key pelagic stocks by some coastal states outside the EU repeatedly over recent years".
"I will continue to highlight this critical issue for our fishers and engage intently with the European Commission and other Member States on possible actions to protect our stocks."
