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Reform UK has momentum and it continues to build

Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK, at its annual party conference in Birmingham, UK
Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK, at its annual party conference in Birmingham, UK

Reform UK knows how to put on a show and its party conference in Birmingham this weekend was its biggest one yet.

With plenty of merchandise, sparklers and a singing mayor, the party ensured that the thousands attending this two-day event were entertained.

The well known talk show host, Jeremy Kyle, took on the role of "roving reporter" for the conference, speaking to key party personnel around the National Exhibition Centre, as people in the main hall watched on.

Andrea Jenkyns, the newly elected Mayor of Lincolnshire, stunned many as she took to the stage in a sequin jumpsuit singing 'Insomnia', a song she co-wrote twenty years ago.

Not everyone was impressed by her singing talent but she managed to capture attention. She also closed the conference by singing the national anthem.

It was another example of how Reform UK is doing politics differently.

"Make Britain Great Again", was a tagline many repeated this weekend. It was evidence that Reform UK has watched the success of US President Donald Trump and has implemented similar tactics.

Turquoise coloured Jerseys, with Reform UK branding, were selling like hotcakes.

They were reminiscent of the red 'MAGA' caps that are so well associated with the US President.

The conference main hall was likened by some attendees to a wrestle-mania arena, as contributors walked on stage to high-octane music and strobe lighting.

And the party's four MPs were swarmed wherever they walked.

Party discipline

During his closing remarks party leader Nigel Farage issued a warning to members about party discipline.

It was a stern message during an otherwise celebratory speech.

Reform UK has already had its fair share of controversies since the last general election. They included a very public falling out with its former MP Rupert Lowe and former party chairman, Zia Yusuf.

Mr Yusuf had left the party after the new Reform MP Sarah Pochin asked a question in parliament about banning the burqa.

"I do think it's dumb for a party to ask the PM if they would do something the party itself wouldn't do", he posted on social media.

Leader of Reform UK Nigel Farage jokes with delegates towards the end of day one of the Reform UK party conference at National Exhibition Centre in Birmingham, England
Leader of Reform UK Nigel Farage jokes with delegates at the conference

It was another example of the rapidly growing party inflicting damage to itself. However, Mr Yusif would soon be brought back into the party as Head of Policy.

Speaking to RTÉ News this weekend, Ms Pochin, said that while Reform UK has only four MPs in parliament, it's now considered the "real opposition" and "strikes fear" in other politicians.

When speaking about the party's immigration policy, she again broke with the party line.

"I personally think that we should have a policy that, you know, no foreign national is entitled to any of our benefit system or our NHS free of charge, unless they've been here for, say, at least five years," she explained.

"That's not Reform policy, but that is something that I would definitely like to put on the table."

It's not clear if Zia Yusif plans on adopting this approach as party policy.

Good Friday Agreement

Last month Reform UK unveiled plans to deport 600,000 asylum seekers if it gets into power.

Mr Farage said it would involve the UK leaving the European Convention on Human Rights.

However, soon afterwards a Downing Street spokesperson pointed out that this meant that the Good Friday Agreement would have to be renegotiated, as the ECHR is an integral part of it.

When we asked Mr Farage about this policy at the party's conference this weekend, he replied that it wouldn't be a problem.

"The ECHR thing was written in right at the end", he claimed.

Adding that the "peace agreement wasn't dependent on the ECHR, I don't see a problem with that".

Critics of Reform UK would argue that its an example of a populist party that makes promises without a clear plan to implement them.

During his main speech on Friday, Mr Farage also promised to end small boats crossing the English channel in "two weeks", another claim that opponents dismiss as fantasy.

Growing influence

Party conference veterans were struck this weekend by the number of lobbyists present at the Reform UK gathering.

"I'll put it this way, you wouldn't see them at the Lib Dems conference" said one.

It's an example of how many people view a Reform UK government as a real possibility.

People also noted that former Conservative party advisors were seen networking at the Reform UK conference.

The former Tory minister, Jacob Rees-Mogg, was one of the speakers at a fringe session this weekend.

He took time to walk around the exhibition centre with his daughter, Mary, afterwards.

16-year-old Mary Rees-Mogg recently "defected" from the Conservative party to Reform UK.

Former Conservative Party leader of the House of Commons, Jacob Rees-Mogg speaks on the second and final day of the Reform UK party conference
Former Tory minister, Jacob Rees-Mogg, was one of the speakers at a fringe session

While her father has so far ruled out such a move, it's clear he's courting support with Reform party members.

Should he run for election again, it would be helpful to be friendly with the enemy.

The long path to Downing Street

Opinion polls suggest that if a general election were to be called tomorrow, Mr Farage is best placed to move into Number 10.

Reform has polled at around 30% since the local elections last May.

Labour and the Conservatives are consistently several points behind.

However, the argument can be made that the Reform party was not subjected to the same levels of scrutiny that the other large parties were in the last general election.

This week Reform's deputy leader Richard Tice distanced himself from the party's last election manifesto, which many believe contained unrealistic measures.

He told BBC Radio 4 that manifestos are "appropriate at a point in time".

The number of defections from the Conservative Party, while welcome at present, also poses a challenge.

On the eve of this year’s conference, the former Tory Culture Secretary and loyal Boris Johnson ally, Nadine Dorries, announced that she was moving to Reform UK.

Some would fear that Reform UK risks being seen as another Conservative Party should it take on too many disillusioned Tories.

This, combined with a relatively untested policy platform, questionable party discipline and the unpredictability of politics contribute to a belief that it’s too early to say whether Reform UK is on course lead the next government.

However, as this weekends conference has made clear, the party has momentum and it’s continuing to build.