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Donald Trump has a long list on his Day One to-do list

Donald Trump enters the White House for the second time far more prepared and far more focused than he did in 2017
Donald Trump enters the White House for the second time far more prepared and far more focused than he did in 2017

The strangeness of last year's US presidential election campaign seems to be continuing into the handover of power.

The ceremonial swearing-in and parade for the new President have been moved indoors because of an unseasonal band of freezing arctic air surging across the Canadian border, driving the ceremonies indoors.

Which of course makes them smaller-scale affairs than originally planned.

Like other broadcasters, RTÉ News has spent the weekend fretting over changed locations, cancelled locations, cancelled events, closed events...and of course, the icy cold weather.

A year ago, we were in Des Moines, Iowa, when a similar arctic airflow wrecked the Iowa caucuses, curtailing campaigning and dampening delegate participation.

The local weather service warned that exposing skin to the elements for 20 minutes risked frostbite.

By the end of that month, the primary campaign was effectively over, dying in snow-bound New Hampshire.

It was Donald Trump all the way, all contenders were annihilated.

However, the campaign, well, that died as a spectacle and as a contest.

Nothing really happened until July and then it all kicked off: assassination attempts, Joe Biden quitting and the 100 days of Kamala Harris.

Since then, more strangeness, a presidential transition team that spent most of its time in Mar-a-Lago, Florida, instead of the more usual Washington DC, attracting a steady stream of supplicants for high office, concerned foreign leaders, and tech billionaires.

And now the big ceremonial move back into the White House undermined by the weather.

Immigration control is expected to be the primary focus on day one

Nevermind, it's what happens after the ceremonies and the balls and the parties are over that counts, and Mr Trump has promised to hit the ground running.

During that bizarre and unprecedented campaign period, that started in 2023, and which included periods when Donald Trump was on trial in the criminal courts in New York and fighting to stay out of criminal courts elsewhere, he made a number of promises about what he would do on day one in the job.

That's the day, he joked with Fox News presenter Sean Hannity, that he would be a "dictator for a day" and enact radical policy change in a few key areas.

The big three are deporting illegal immigrants, a sweeping regime of tariffs on imports, and pardons for those convicted of the attack on the US Congress on 6 January 2021.

In that regard, Mr Trump enters the White House for the second time far more prepared and far more focused than he did in 2017.

He has reportedly executive orders ready to be signed in his first hours in the White House that will set in train key campaign promises made to his supporters.

It is not just about satisfying the MAGA base. Polling published over the weekend in the conservative-leaning Wall Street Journal and the Liberal-leaning New York Times both indicated substantial public support for some key Trump policy ideas, notably around immigration control and deportation.

This is expected to be the primary focus on day one, in the hours after Donald Trump returns to the White House after his truncated, indoor swearing-in and victory parade.

The Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency (ICE) is reported to be readying a large-scale raid on illegal immigrants in Chicago, set to begin tomorrow.

Though it seems rather self-defeating to give them such advance information: perhaps its a sporting gesture, perhaps the raid will happen elsewhere.

It's aimed at rounding up illegal immigrants who have committed crimes to be deported.

It is a Democrat-run city, a so-called "sanctuary city", where local law enforcement has been ordered not to cooperate with Federal Government immigration clampdowns.

New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco are similar, so expect further action in these places.

According to the Wall Street Journal's polling, most Americans want a watered down,"MAGA-lite" version of Mr Trump’s policies, yes to clamping down on illegal immigration, but not really liking deportation, especially of families with children born in the US.

However, the New York Times poll found a harsher sample.

Around 87% support deporting illegal immigrants who have committed crimes, 65% want to deport all immigrants who entered the US illegally over the last four years, and 55% want to kick out all illegal immigrants, whenever they arrive.

Some of the 1,200 or so people convicted for their role in the attack on the US Capitol are in Washington DC now for the transition, expecting to be granted Presidential Pardons

On the first day of his previous term, Mr Trump signed just one executive order, which targeted Obamacare, the expansion of government-subsidised health insurance.

This time there could be a lot more. Here is a checklist of his major "day one" promises to keep an eye on over the next say 48 hours:

Begin mass deportations

As he did during his previous campaigns, Mr Trump made immigration the centrepiece of his 2024 platform, repeatedly vowing to deport undocumented migrants. On 27 October, he said at a New York rally "on day one, I will launch the largest deportation program in American history to get the criminals out".

According to NBC News, in 2022, the number of undocumented migrants living in the US stood at nearly 11 million according to a federal estimate, though the exact number is unknown.

Fewer than 500,000 undocumented immigrants were known to have criminal backgrounds, as of September, ICE said in a letter to Congress.

End birthright citizenship

This one could potentially have the biggest impact on the estimated 11,000 undocumented Irish living in the US.

Anyone who is born in the US is automatically granted citizenship, a right laid out in the 14th Amendment.

Mr Trump wants to change it, a logistically difficult operation that would almost certainly lead to legal battles.

He re-affirmed his intention of moving on this issue on day one in a TV interview last month.

End Biden-era border policies

Joe Biden relaxed border control measures brought in during the Covid pandemic that sealed the southern border. Donald Trump intends reversing course and tightening up.

Mr Biden did tighten the border last year and the numbers entering the country are now much lower than in previous years. But it is still a hot issue.

Pardon 6 January defendants

Some of the 1,200 or so people convicted for their role in the attack on the US Capitol are in Washington DC now for the transition, expecting to be granted presidential pardons.

Mr Trump has made numerous promises to the people he referred to as "political prisoners" during the campaign. Since then he has told NBC News, Time Magazine and a press conference that he will address the pardons issue on day one, possibly "within the first nine minutes".

Donald Trump has also threatened a 60% tariff on Chinese imports

Ending the war in Ukraine

One of his most audacious promises was that he could end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office, or even in the period between the election and the inauguration.

This has proven to be not the case, with neither Russia nor Ukraine indicating much willingness to come to the table. This promise will not be delivered.

End the war in Gaza

A fragile ceasefire went into effect yesterday. Mr Trump’s Middle East envoy helped to close the deal, which was essentially a plan the Biden administration had been trying to make stick for most of the past year.

Mr Trump said shortly after the election that there would be hell to pay if Hamas did not release its hostages by the time he became president. This may have helped get the deal over the line.

Implement tariffs

"On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States and its ridiculous Open Borders," Mr Trump said in a post on Truth Social on 25 November.

He has also threatened a 60% tariff on Chinese imports and has previously proposed a 10% tariff across the board on all imports to the US.

Most economists believe this would increase the cost of goods to US consumers (who would end up paying the tariffs) and drive inflation higher.

The policy is also targeted at "onshoring" manufacturing industry into the US, reversing a decades old trend of "offshoring" through foreign direct investment overseas.

The Irish Government and business community are particularly concerned about this aspect of Mr Trump’s policy.

Faced with needing money to fund campaign promises, and a continuation of his 2017 tax cuts, Donald Trump appears to believe tariffs on imports, which are effectively a sales tax on consumers, will provide the money without the need to overtly put up taxes.

During his campaign, he referred to tariffs as "the most beautiful word in the entire dictionary of words".

Cancel the electric vehicle 'mandate'

In 2021, President Biden signed an order setting a nationwide goal aiming for 50% of new cars and trucks sold by 2030 to be zero-emission.

Donald Trump believes increasing the output of oil and gas production will lower energy costs

In March, the Environmental Protection Agency finalised tailpipe emission limits, and electric vehicles were expected to help meet the goals. California also has a law dictating that all new car sales in the state be zero-emission by 2035.

Mr Trump has painted them all with a broad brush, referring to them as "electric vehicle mandates," though no one is required to buy an electric car. In November, at a campaign event in Houston, he reiterated his promise, saying, "the day I take office, I will cancel Crooked Joe's electric vehicle mandate".

This one could be tricky for Mr Trump as he is massively supported by Elon Musk, whose vast wealth is founded chiefly on his shareholding in Tesla, and electric car maker (which has extensive operations in China).

Oil and Gas extraction

One of Mr Trump’s most frequent promises, repeated in almost every campaign speech, is the commitment to increase oil drilling in the United States.

"Drill, baby, drill" became a mantra, and he promised to use his first day to issue orders to sweep away restrictions on drilling for oil and fracking for shale gas (the latter promise helped swing votes in key swing state Pennsylvania).

Mr Trump believes increasing the output of oil and gas production will lower energy costs and drive down overall inflation in the US, which is already self-sufficient in oil.

Petrol prices are also a hot issue for ordinary Americans, who frequently drive long distances to work, and who are very car-dependent due to the spread-out pattern of settlement in the US.

Transgender rights

A "culture wars" issue that has helped build and energise the MAGA base, Mr Trump has repeatedly referred to transgender women as men, vowing to his supporters that he will ensure transgender women cannot compete in women’s sports.

In an October speech in Florida, he said: "I will keep men out of women's sports, 100%, immediately, first day".

During the same speech, he vowed to sign an executive order on his first day in office to cut federal funding for schools "pushing critical race theory, transgender insanity and other inappropriate racial, sexual or political ideas".

That's quite a list for any day in government, particularly day one and there is the unexpected too.

What is he going to do about the TikTok ban? Will the Middle East ceasefire require instant attention from the new President?

His political allies have already begun the process of expectation management by saying "day one" should not be taken literally.

But he also has reason to push ahead with a blizzard of executive orders: his voters, particularly the MAGA faithful.

It was up in the icy landscape of rural New Hampshire a year ago that I was struck by the number of voters who gave us one clear message about why they liked Donald Trump, he does what he says he is going to do.

The next 48 hours should tell us if that hope was misplaced or will be rewarded with Presidential action.