A new Exit Poll suggests that Fine Gael and Sinn Féin are virtually tied when it comes to first preference votes with Fianna Fáil slightly further back, making the result of General Election 2024 too close to call.
The Exit Poll, carried out by Ipsos Behaviour and Attitudes for RTÉ, The Irish Times, TG4 and Trinity College Dublin, indicates all three parties are separated by just 1.6%, with the margin of error at 1.4%.
Fine Gael is on 21%; Fianna Fáil secured 19.5%; while Sinn Féin obtained 21.1%.
The Exit Poll is based on 5,018 completed interviews conducted immediately after people voted at polling stations in 43 constituencies across the country.
It indicates Green Party first preference support stands at 4%; Labour at 5%; the Social Democrats at 5.8%; Aontú at 3.6%; People Before Profit-Solidarity at 3.1%; Independents at 12.7%, Independent Ireland at 2.2%, with others on 1.9%.
In the 2020 General Election, Sinn Féin obtained 24.53% first preference votes. Fianna Fáil secured 22.18% while Fine Gael took 20.86%.
The first preference vote of both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil is suggested by this poll to stand at 40.5% which is lower than the 43% they polled in the 2020 General Election.
Three polls over the past week suggested that the three largest parties were running neck-and-neck, and this Exit Poll appears to confirm that position.
The chart below compares polls conducted most recently across the campaign against the Exit Poll.
Click to activate or deactivate polls, hover your mouse or tap on a circle for additional detail.
We need your consent to load this flourish contentWe use flourish to manage extra content that can set cookies on your device and collect data about your activity. Please review their details and accept them to load the content.Manage Preferences
Second preferences
When the second preference voting was surveyed, 20% went to Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, with Sinn Féin at 17%, the Ipsos B&A data suggests.
Independents are on 14%, Labour 6%, Social Democrats on 5%, People Before Profit Solidarity 4%, the Green Party on 3%, Aontú 3% Independent Ireland 3%, with others on 2%.
Where does the Exit Poll say second preferences from the three big parties are likely to go?
This graph shows what first preference voters for the three big parties told Ipsos B&A they had done with their second preference.
We need your consent to load this flourish contentWe use flourish to manage extra content that can set cookies on your device and collect data about your activity. Please review their details and accept them to load the content.Manage Preferences
