Vote transfers are one of the most intriguing aspects of Irish elections.
The Proportional Representation with Single Transferable Vote (PR-STV) system allows voters to express multiple preferences, reducing the impact of 'strategic voting' and minimising the number of 'wasted votes'.
Evidence from opinion polls and the electronic voting machines trialled in 2002 reveals that the average voter expresses around three to four preferences.
Many lower-ranked preferences – those listed as second, third and so on – are also considered during the counting process.
Approximately 30% of votes are transferred at least once when a voter's higher preferences are either eliminated or have already secured a seat.
But how have transfer patterns between parties and Independents evolved over time, and how often do they determine the fortunes of candidates?
The state of the parties
Before addressing these questions about vote transfers, let us briefly examine the state of the parties less than two weeks before the election.
The Irish Times released an in-person Ipsos B&A poll earlier this week, while a Sunday Times/Opinions poll, conducted online, was published today.
The Polling Indicator only considers political parties that have been included in the 151 opinion polls released since the 2020 election. New parties, such as Independent Ireland, appeared in only a few polls, and small parties are usually grouped together with Independents. The Polling Indicator merges these parties into the 'Independents/Other' category.
The figure below displays the latest Irish Polling Indicator estimates, with 95% uncertainty margins, indicating the likely range of current support in terms of first-preference vote intentions.
Fine Gael is currently the most popular party, with support estimated between 22.5% and 26%, followed by Fianna Fáil at 19% to 22%. Independents and other parties are estimated at 17.5% to 21.5%, closely aligned with Sinn Féin at 17.5% to 20%.
The Social Democrats are estimated to have support between 4% and 6%, while Labour ranges from 3.5% to 5%, and the Green Party from 3% to 4.5%.
Support for Aontú is estimated to be between 2% and 3%, while predicted support for People Before Profit–Solidarity ranges from 1.5% to 2.5%
This week's Ipsos B&A and Opinions polls are in line with these aggregated estimates.
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RedC is the only pollster that consistently lists support for Independent Ireland. According to their most recent poll from last week, Independent Ireland currently stands at an estimated 3%.
Generally speaking, the ten polls released since mid-September have been quite consistent, irrespective of the survey mode (in-person or online) and polling company.
Polling aggregation: a word of caution
The Polling Indicator captures ranges of likely support and provides context for new polls, rather than attempting to compete with pollsters or predict election outcomes.
While these estimates have generally been accurate in predicting the average vote-poll error, some outliers have been observed in most elections since 1989.
In certain elections, the aggregated figures either under- or overestimated a party's support by 2 to 4 percentage points, though these discrepancies did not systematically favour any particular party or Independents.
Transfer patterns based on official election results
The most common method of assessing transfer patterns is to analyse official election results by tracking transfers from eliminated or elected candidates. Michael Gallagher, of Trinity College Dublin, has studied these redistributions over many decades, enabling an assessment of both intra-party and inter-coalition transfers.
Until the early 1980s, over 80% of transfers from a Fianna Fáil candidate went to another Fianna Fáil candidate. The level of intra-party transfers was somewhat lower for Fine Gael but still exceeded 70% in nearly all elections from 1951 to 1987. By the 2020 general election, the rate of intra-party transfers among Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael voters had dropped to around 55%–60%.
Official election results also reveal high levels of inter-coalition transfers. For instance, in the 2016 election, transfers between the then-government parties, Fine Gael and Labour, were significantly higher than transfers between most other parties.
While intra-party transfers have become less prevalent, we might expect high volumes of transfers between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael this year, given that the parties have formed a formal coalition for the first time.
Survey-based analyses
Surveys offer another method for assessing transfer patterns.
Analysing mock ballot papers from exit polls, usually conducted in person at polling stations, allows for a comprehensive understanding of voters' intentions, whereas analyses based on election results consider only transfers from elected or eliminated candidates.
Transfer patterns according to the 2020 Exit Poll
I extracted all combinations of first- and second-preference votes among the roughly 5,300 respondents in the 2020 Exit Poll.
The vertical axis in the figure below represents the first-preference vote choice, while the horizontal axis shows the respondents’ second preferences.
The boxes indicate the intensity of transfer patterns, with darker colours representing higher levels of transfers.
Clicking on a box reveals the percentage of first-preference votes that went to the party or Independents listed on the horizontal axis.
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Let's start in the top-left corner of the graph. Of Fine Gael voters, 54% also gave their second preference to a Fine Gael candidate. Similarly, 50% of Fianna Fáil voters did the same for another Fianna Fáil candidate.
While Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael still have the highest levels of intra-party transfers, these are notably lower than in the past. For comparison, according to the 2016 Exit Poll, over 60% of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael voters gave their second preference to a candidate from the same party.
Cross-party transfers in the 2020 Exit Poll indicate that only 13%–15% of first-preference votes for Fianna Fáil went to a Fine Gael candidate (and vice versa).
These transfers are only slightly higher than the levels reported in the 2016 Exit Poll (10%–12%), suggesting that the confidence and supply agreement between the parties from 2016 to 2020 had only a limited impact on these inter-party transfers.
As mentioned earlier, we might anticipate higher levels this year, as the two parties could benefit from inter-coalition transfers.
In addition, the graph reveals a 'vote-left-transfer-left' cluster. Transfers between the Green Party, Labour, the Social Democrats, and People Before Profit–Solidarity were quite strong, indicating that these parties form a distinct cluster.
The 2020 Exit Poll also provides insights into transfers involving Independents. For example, 20% of first preferences for Sinn Féin transferred to an Independent. Among those who gave their first preference to an Independent, 25% gave their second preference to another Independent, followed by 19% to Fianna Fáil, 17% to Sinn Féin, and 10% to Fine Gael.
To what degree do transfers affect the final outcome?
Transfers receive significant attention during campaigns. Political scientists Stephen Quinlan (GESIS Cologne) and Hannah Schwarz (University Pompeu Fabra) recently noted that "conventional wisdom, especially in the media, holds that these votes play a decisive role in deciding elections".
But how often do transfers change the electoral fortunes of candidates?
We can consider transfers as 'decisive' if a candidate would not have won a seat based on first-preference votes but receives enough transfers to overtake a competitor and secure a seat.
During the European Parliament elections earlier this year, one candidate fits this definition: Sinn Féin's Kathleen Funchion, who was in sixth position in the five-seat constituency of Ireland South after the first count, overtook another candidate by the 14th count to secure a seat.
The electoral system influences voting behaviour
Before answering this question, it is important to note that this analysis is somewhat superficial. Without the option to transfer votes, the electorate would likely behave differently from the start.
Additionally, at times, different sets of transfers can cancel each other out. For example, in Dublin North-West in 2020, the candidates in the top three positions after the first count eventually secured the three seats. However, the candidate initially in sixth place rose to third by the fifth count due to transfers, only to lose that position when a subsequent transfer returned the original third-placed candidate to third.
One in ten TDs were elected through lower preferences
Quinlan and Schwarz gathered extensive data to assess how often candidates were elected through lower preferences in STV elections. Investigating local and general elections in Ireland, Malta, Northern Ireland and Scotland, they found that transfers were pivotal in the election of about one in ten candidates.
I expanded their analysis of lower preference vote transfers to cover all Irish general elections from 1948 to 2020.
The figure below shows the percentage of candidates elected decisively through lower preferences over the past 70 years.
Across these 21 elections, on average, 9.6% of TDs were elected through lower preferences. In other words, nine out of ten elected candidates were in a winning position after both the first and last counts.
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We observe the highest levels of decisive transfers in 2020 (13.2%), driven by many votes for Sinn Féin candidates being redistributed to other left-wing parties.
Transfers influenced outcomes in over one-third of constituencies
Although only one in ten TDs were elected due to transfers, lower preferences influenced the final outcome in 36% of constituencies between 1948 and 2020. In 2020, transfers influenced the results in half of all constituencies.
This discrepancy between candidates and constituencies is due to Ireland's multi-seat system. While only a small percentage of individual TDs rely solely on transfers to secure their seat, transfers can significantly influence the allocation of remaining seats, particularly in tight races.
While the impact of transfers may be smaller than often assumed, lower preferences could still alter the balance of power in the next Dáil.
Further information
The Irish Polling Indicator website contains more interactive graphs and details on the statistical model.
Gallagher, M., Marsh, M., & Reidy, T. (Eds.). (2021). How Ireland Voted 2020: The End of an Era. Springer Nature.
Quinlan, S., & Schwarz, H. (2022). The transfers game: A comparative analysis of the mechanical effect of lower preference votes in STV systems. International Political Science Review, 43(1), 118-135.
Cunningham, K. (2018). Mining the ballot: Preferences and transfers in the 2016 election. In: Marsh, M., Farrell, D., & Reidy, T. (Eds.).The Post-Crisis Irish Voter. Manchester University Press.
Louwerse, T. (2016). Improving opinion poll reporting: The Irish Polling Indicator. Irish Political Studies, 31(4), 541-566.
Stefan Müller is an Associate Professor at the School of Politics and International Relations in University College Dublin.
During the campaign, he will be looking at insights and trends from the various opinion polls in his Poll of Polls analysis.
