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Strangford - Will boundary changes damage the DUP vote?

The DUP's Jim Shannon is seeking to be elected for the fifth time
The DUP's Jim Shannon is seeking to be elected for the fifth time

This has been viewed as a shoo-in for the DUP for the past two decades but is expected to be a more competitive contest this time around.

Jim Shannon is a seasoned campaigner seeking to the elected for the DUP for the fifth time.

A combination of boundary changes and a challenge from the Traditional Unionist Voice, which has accused the DUP of misleading its supporters over its post Brexit Windsor Framework deal with the British government, make it more difficult task.

In the last British general election in 2019 there was a swing of almost 15% away from the DUP in the constituency and an increase in the Alliance Party vote, which saw Jim Shannon's majority reduced to 7,021 and Alliance leapfrog the Ulster Unionist Party into second place.

The boundary changes have added thousands of nationalists from around the Downpatrick area to the electorate while some unionist areas have been removed.

The change is not enough for Sinn Féin or the SDLP to have a chance of winning the seat, but tactical voting by their supporters could boost the chances of the Alliance Party candidate Michelle Guy.

Alliance polled well in Strangford in the last Stormont Assembly elections in 2022, winning a seat for the first time, and will hope to continue that momentum.

The TUV came close to winning an Assembly seat in 2022, just missing out due to a lack of transfers from other parties.

Its candidate is the party’s deputy leader, Belfast City councillor Ron McDowell, who will hope to eat into the DUP vote.

In March last year Mr Shannon submitted an Early Day Motion in the House of Commons urging politicians to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the release of "I Will Always Love You" by Dolly Parton.

He will be hoping the voters who have elected him 4 times have not fallen out of love.

The expectation is that he will be back in the House of Commons again, but the DUP will be wary of the possible double whammy of an Alliance bounce and a strong TUV performance.


2019 General Election:

Valid votes: 37,485

Turnout: 56.28%

DUP: 17,705

Alliance: 10,634

UUP: 4,023

SDLP: 1,994

Conservative: 1,476

Green Party Northern Ireland: 790

Sinn Féin: 555

UKIP: 308


2024 Candidates:

Alexandra Braidner - Green Party Northern Ireland

Garet Burns - Independent

Garreth Falls - Independent

Michelle Guy - Alliance

Barry Hetherington - Conservative

Ron McDowell - TUV

Will Poland - SDLP

Noel Sands - Sinn Féin

Jim Shannon - DUP

Richard Smart - UUP