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Conservatives expect losses in UK by-elections

UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is in danger of losing three Westminster seats (file image)
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is in danger of losing three Westminster seats (file image)

English voters in three constituencies are voting in by-elections in what will be difficult electoral tests for the Conservative government.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is in danger of losing three Westminster seats on top of 1,000 council seats already lost in last May's local elections.

The keenest contest is thought to be in former prime minister Boris Johnson’s old seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip in northwest London.

The Labour Party was ahead in a recent opinion poll but only by 8%, which was not regarded as a big enough margin to be confident.

The extension of the Ultra Low Emission Zone to Uxbridge has become a huge election issue

Opinion is divided in Uxbridge town about its former MP, who resigned last month.

There are still a lot of people who speak affectionately about him in an area which is mainly a middle class commuter suburb that voted for Brexit and there is also a suspicion of Labour.

However, it is the extension of the Ultra Low Emission Zone to outer London areas like Uxbridge that has become a huge election issue and it could lose votes for Labour.

The measure, which was brought in by Labour’s Mayor of London Sadiq Khan, means that older models of cars attract a daily levy of £12.50.

Donna Aldrich (sitting) and Christina Cherrie (standing) are unsure of who to vote for now

"ULEZ is absolutely absurd, appalling and disgusting," said Donna Aldrich while visiting her local hairdressers in Uxbridge.

"All its going to do, as usual in England is make the poor poorer while the rich stay rich," she said.

She added that her 83-year-old neighbour will have to pay £12.50 for their weekly visit to the shop.

Hairdresser Christina Cherrie points to the loss of the local police station which she said has contributed to rising crime in the area.

Both women, who usually vote Conservative, said Uxbridge has lost its community spirit and are unsure of who to vote for now.

It is a sign of nervousness in the Labour ranks that their by-election candidate recently came out against ULEZ.

Mr Khan has also backtracked on the closure of Uxbridge police station.

But most people on the street seem to feel it is time for a change, with many saying that Mr Johnson was an absent MP.

The quality of medical and dental services and the standard of the local hospital are often quoted as grievances.

Chris Lakin said typical Tory voters are moving to Buckinghamshire and Oxfordshire

The demographic change is also in favour of Labour, according to Chris Lakin of Lakin Estate Agents.

He said much of the "old money" and typical Tory voters are moving out to Buckinghamshire and Oxfordshire while Uxbridge becomes ever more subsumed into the Greater London area.

It is becoming more diverse and is home to an increasing number of skilled migrants arriving to work in the medical and IT industries.

For Labour, winning the former seat of Mr Johnson in an area represented by Conservatives since 1970 would be a huge prize even though the current Conservative majority is only just over 7,000.

The other two Tory seats up for grabs are in Yorkshire and Somerset, with the type of majorities that would have once been considered safe.

The Somerset seat of Somerton and Frome left vacant by the resignation of its MP over drug and sexual misconduct allegations had a Conservative majority of over 19,000 in 2019.

It would require a swing of 15% for the second placed Liberal Democrats to take the seat.

But it is a sign of the times that this is considered the seat which the Conservatives are most likely to lose.

The Liberal Democrats overturned an even bigger majority of over 24,000 in Tiverton and Honiton in neighbouring Devon last year.

Somerton was previously a Liberal Democrat seat and pundits are predicting they will it get it back.

The third seat of Selby and Ainsty in Yorkshire looks on paper like a huge task for Labour.

It became vacant following the resignation of Mr Johnson's ally Nigel Adams after he did not get a House of Lords seat.

Mr Adams had a majority of over 20,000 in 2019 and it would require a swing of nearly 18% for Labour to win.

That level of gain is something the party has not achieved in nearly 30 years.

However, a local poll put Labour on 41% of the vote compared to 29% for the Conservatives and that would fit in with the national picture which puts Labour on 46% compared to the Conservatives 26%.

Mr Sunak could face pressure from backbenchers if the government lose three by-elections in one day

According to reports, Conservative sources are saying that that they expect to lose all three by-elections.

They reason that people are protesting about current economic difficulties and not voting for a change of government.

Before the local elections, some Conservatives were accused of exaggerating the expected defeat by predicting the loss of 1,000 seats in the belief that it would make the actual losses seem acceptable.

If the government lost three by-elections in one day, it would be the first time that has happened in 55 years.

That could put pressure on Mr Sunak from his backbenchers.

However, Mr Sunak still has a working majority of 60 seats to give him breathing space and time for his policies to show some improvement in the national picture.