By Hannah McCarthy
News broke this week that the Lebanese authorities are questioning a suspect concerning the attack on four Irish peacekeepers in al-Aqbiya in south Lebanon that left Private Seán Rooney dead and Trooper Shane Kearney seriously injured.
In a country where most political killings go unpunished, the arrest offers some hope that rare justice may be done. But many familiar with Lebanon will have good reasons to remain sceptical of the small crisis-ridden Middle Eastern country's ability to carry out a robust investigation and prosecution of the deadly gun attack.
Sectarian division and interests are consistent obstacles in the way of justice and accountability in Lebanon. Any investigation requires political support that is rarely available or durable.
It is relatively well-known that political power is allocated along sectarian lines in Lebanon meaning that the prime minister must be a Sunni, the speaker a Shia and the presidency is held by a Maronite Catholic Christian. Parliamentary seats are allocated based on a sectarian quota.
It is sometimes overlooked that this power-sharing arrangement permeates most aspects of Lebanese society. For example, the leadership of the security forces are currently divided as follows: the Lebanese Armed Forces are led by Joseph Aoun, a Christian Maronite; the intelligence agency (referred to as General Security) is led by Abbas Ibrahim, a Shia Muslim; and the international security forces, which includes the police, is led by Imad Osman, a Sunni Muslim.
Al-Aqbiya, where the attack on the Irish peacekeepers took place, is Shia majority and under the control of Hezbollah, a paramilitary and political group, as well as its ally the Amal Movement. Hezbollah has said that the local from al-Aqbiya who is allegedly responsible for the attack was a supporter of the party but not a member.
Both Hezbollah and the Amal Movement draw their members from the Lebanese Shia community, but Hezbollah defines itself as an Islamic party (its name is derived from the Arabic for 'party of God’) while the Amal Movement defines itself as more secular.
Both Shia parties have armed militias but with the backing of neighbouring Syria and Shia-majority Iran, Hezbollah's militia has grown into a private army widely believed to be better resourced than Lebanon's army. Members of Hezbollah's militia routinely parade through the territory and towns it controls as mini fiefdoms within the Lebanese state.
In 2006, Hezbollah fought a six-week war with Israeli forces along the Blue Line that divides Lebanon and Israel which left over a hundred dead and almost a million displaced. With the Lebanese state so weak, some communities in south Lebanon still view Hezbollah as the only group capable of protecting them from Israeli attacks and invasion.
Alongside its reputation for fighting Israeli forces is one for carrying out execution-style killings and attacks on countless Lebanese people who have opposed or criticised the group.
Last year, four members of Hezbollah were convicted in absentia at a special UN tribunal for the killing of Rafik Hariri in 2005. The former Lebanese prime minister was killed by a large car bomb in downtown Beirut which killed 21 other people.
In February 2021, activist and Hezbollah critic Lokman Slim was shot dead in his car a short drive from where the attacks on the Irish peacekeepers took place in south Lebanon. No one has ever been arrested in relation to the attack.
Even when an investigation has secured enough political support to begin, Hezbollah has shown a willingness to obstruct it by force.
Following the Beirut port blast in August 2020 which killed over 210 people and destroyed parts of east Beirut, a legal inquiry was launched to establish how the industrial amounts of ammonium nitrate, which caused the explosion, were left improperly stored for years in the port.
Ammonium nitrate is used as fertiliser as well as to make explosives and there has been speculation - so far without firm evidence - that Hezbollah was responsible for originally importing the combustible substance.
Last October, members of Hezbollah and its allies in the Amal Movement staged a protest in south Lebanon against the judicial inquiry into the port blast. The protest descended into an armed fight between Christian and Shia militias which ultimately left six people dead.
The inquiry into the Beirut blast is still technically ongoing but without much progress. Hopes that it will ever deliver an answer to those who lost loved ones and suffered life-changing injuries are evaporating.
It is against this backdrop that many questioned whether any suspect would be handed over to Lebanese authorities in relation to the attack on the Irish peacekeepers.
Hezbollah remains a grip over much of south Lebanon and with a close relationship with Syrian authorities, arranging for suspects to escape across the porous Lebanese border with Syria is relatively straightforward.
So why has Hezbollah handed over a suspect this time?
A spokesperson for Hezbollah has said that the party wants to cooperate with the investigation into the attack which is being led by the Lebanese army. It is not yet known if the suspect handed over was the gunman. It is not impossible that Hezbollah would hand over someone to create the appearance of cooperating with the investigation.
The prolonged economic crisis in Lebanon has forced the Lebanese army to rely almost entirely on funding from the US, UK, France and the UAE for soldiers' salaries and equipment. And Joseph Aoun will be under pressure to deliver a proper investigation.
The economic situation in Lebanon has also weakened Hezbollah and the militant group is not able to rely to the same extent on Syria or Iran, which is now faced with widespread anti-government protests.
Last May, the parliamentary branch of Hezbollah lost its majority in the Lebanese parliament. Since then there has been a power vacuum as negotiations continue to form a cabinet with divisions emerging between parties allowed with Hezbollah and those, such as the Lebanese Forces, which is a Christian political party backed by Saudi Arabia which wants to take a tougher stance on Hezbollah and its weapons.
On 30 October, the term of Lebanese President Michel Aoun ended. The Christian Maronite and his party, The Free Patriotic Movement, were an ally of Hezbollah and since Aoun's term came to an end no new candidate has been appointed. Lebanese parties have failed to agree on a presidential candidate for similar reasons to why a cabinet hasn't been appointed: Hezbollah and its weapons.
The attack in al-Aqbiya has come at an inopportune time for Hezbollah. The group may not have the resources or political capital to obstruct an investigation in the way they have become accustomed to.
