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Is Ivana Bacik Labour's 'bit of gold'?

Two previous Dáil election defeats for Ivana Bacik are now chalked down as valuable learning exercises
Two previous Dáil election defeats for Ivana Bacik are now chalked down as valuable learning exercises

Today Ivana Bacik will join the Labour Women team in a sea swim in south Dublin.

It will kick off the party's International Women's Day celebrations.

Although he was never shy about publicising his own dips through the glassy surface of cold water, it is the kind of event that Alan Kelly could never be part of.

But he did immerse himself in the world of political leadership for almost two years.

However, his parliamentary party colleagues in recent times found him disengaged and overly reliant on scripted notes when talking to them.

Gone was the camaraderie and the detailed discussions about strategy that they craved.

Notwithstanding the challenges created by the pandemic, TDs and Senators felt the party leader could have communicated more effectively with them and with councillors.

Most tellingly though the opinion polls suggested there were no traces of meaningful momentum in Labour's support levels.

Yes Alan Kelly could still deliver a sizzling headline but his colleagues felt this just didn't translate into any "headway" for the party.

Then just after Christmas the internal chats about things needing to change began in earnest.

Suddenly too there was an alternative.

Labour party members were taken aback at the warmth of the response Ivana Bacik received on the canvass trail in the Dublin Bay South by-election.

Her empathy and her tireless ability to campaign led some to believe that "a bit of gold" had been discovered.

When Alan Kelly celebrated the by-election win, the seeds of his downfall were sown

The two previous Dáil election defeats now chalked down as valuable learning exercises.

That by-election was fought out under the glare of intense scrutiny.

There was a big appetite for the first political major contest since the last election and the media coverage was extensive.

It was the then Senator's ability to deftly deal with Labour's time in Government that really impressed many within the party.

Thus, when Alan Kelly celebrated the by-election win, which on first look seemed to have solidified his place as leader, in fact the seeds of his downfall were sown.

The Dublin Bay South TD may not be party leader yet but she almost certainly will be once the nominations for the vacant post close on 24 March.

First she will have to formally declare her interest and that's likely to happen early next week.

The 53-year-old was never at any point part of a clique that sought to oust Alan Kelly for her own ambition.

Yet it does seem there was an awareness among the parliamentary party that Ivana Bacik would be willing to stand for the leadership if there was a change.

This was said to have been communicated in at least one cryptic text message.

Yet she will now have to clearly address the concerns of party members who believe the leader was politically executed prematurely.

Many of them would also prefer to see a leadership contest taking place rather than having a single candidate declare an interest in the role.

Former Minister of State and current councillor Joe Costello feels Alan Kelly was given too short an opportunity to prove himself.

He points out that with just two years left until the local elections this would have been a key time for the party leader to recruit candidates and rebuild the party.

The former long-serving Dublin Central TD thinks Ivana Bacik's biggest task is to convince voters outside of the capital city that she understands the issues facing them.

That view is shared by the Chairman of the Labour Carlow-Kilkenny constituency council, Seán Ó hArgáin.

He thinks that rural transport, housing policy, and the impact of the rising cost of living should be the main focus for the likely new party leader.

The former mayor of Kilkenny also expressed surprise that Alan Kelly wasn't given the chance to lead the party in "normal times."

In the southwest the opinions follow a similar pattern.

Killarney Labour Councillor Marie Moloney described Alan Kelly's departure as "a massive shock" and added that he always listened to councillors.

She believes though that Ivana Bacik will help attract a lot more women voters to the party.

That coupled with her long time campaigning on social issues could widen the party's appeal, that at least is the hope among TDs and Senators.

"Ivana has been on the right side of history on so many issues and her values travel far beyond south Dublin," observed one veteran party figure.

If they are proven wrong, the party's very survival could be in question.