As the country recovers from three storms in a week, new research has revealed a worrying change to the North Atlantic Jet Stream that could have a big impact on weather patterns in Ireland and Northern Europe.
The jet stream is a variable band of very strong core winds that meander and flow rapidly about 10 kilometres overhead.
The way it flows, causes changes in wind and air pressure at that very high level which have a fundamental influence on the weather that affects us in Ireland and Northern Europe.
New research from Maynooth University's Icarus Climate Centre has found that the jet stream is moving northwards and is increasing in speed, with knock on effects on storm activity and temperature patterns across the Northern Hemisphere.
Last week, Ireland was impacted by three named storms - Dudley, Eunice, and Franklin - all of which were associated with very fast-moving strong winds that Met Éireann said were heavily influenced by the speed of the jet stream and its position passing above Ireland.
The new research, which was led by Dr Samantha Hallam of the ICARUS Climate Research Centre at Maynooth University, found that the average winter jet stream in the North Atlantic and Eurasia has moved northwards by about 330 kilometres over the past 140 years.
This is the equivalent to a northward move of 3 degrees latitude, from 44 degrees north to 47 degrees north, and it centers the average path of the North Atlantic winter jet stream much closer overhead to Ireland.
The research also found that the average speed of the winds in the jet stream have increased by 8% over the study period and now stands at 212 kilometres per hour.
The path of the jet stream is influenced by differences in air temperature and air pressure between the arctic regions and the Equator.
The fact that the increases in temperatures caused by climate change have, so far, been more significant at the poles than at the equator means that average temperature differences between both regions are slowly reducing.
The Maynooth study says that this, combined with increasing air pressure differences, is consistent with changes in the latitude and speed of the jet stream that has been observed.
The study, published this week in the peer-reviewed scientific journal, Climate Dynamics, is the longest regional study of the northern hemisphere jet stream.
It says that the long-term movements that have been recorded have a significant influence on storm activity and temperature patterns across the northern hemisphere which can impact the weather through strong winds and flooding events.
Lead author of the paper, Dr Hallam, said: "Significant increases in winter jet latitude and speed are observed over the North Atlantic and Eurasia which is consistent with the decreasing temperature and increasing pressure gradients observed between the equator and the Arctic over the period.
"Over the North Pacific, no increase in jet latitude or speed are observed, however, changes in the North Pacific sea surface temperatures explains over 50% of the variability in jet latitude.
"The results highlight that Northern Hemisphere jet variability, and trends differ on a regional basis. This is important for making climate predictions and in developing plans to combat climate change," she added.
These findings are the result of a statistical analysis of the 250mb jet stream using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis dataset.
The research was supported by the Marine Institute and funded by the Irish Government under the JPI Climate and JPI Ocean joint call and the Natural Environmental Research Council, and involved collaboration ICARUS Climate Research Centre at Maynooth University in Ireland, University of Southampton, UK, and National Oceanography Centre, UK.
