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Govt publishes draft for risk assessment report

The report notes risks attached to Brexit, mass migration, housing shortage, cyber security and nuclear contamination
The report notes risks attached to Brexit, mass migration, housing shortage, cyber security and nuclear contamination

The Government has published the draft national risk assessment report for this year which outlines the strategic risks facing the country.

It gives a greater importance to the risks attached to Brexit, weakening global economic growth, infrastructural deficits, international terrorism and expenditure pressures.

It separately notes the under-supply of housing and mass migration as other risks.

On the economic front it states the country is "potentially vulnerable" to the relocation of multinational corporations elsewhere or to a downturn, in particular business activity on which Ireland is reliant.

It states that the high level of impaired loans remains a major challenge for the banking system.

It also points out that while the Central Bank's limits on mortgage lending appear to have moderated the rate at which house prices were increasing, it states the continued under-supply of housing has led to a shortage of accommodation and particularly affordable accommodation and consequential increases in rents and homelessness.

It notes that investment in infrastructure declined during the recession and with the strong resumption of growth over the last few years, serious pressure points are emerging in a number of areas particularly  housing, transport and water infrastructure and services.

It also states that stronger economic growth may lead to expectations that public spending restraints can be relaxed.

In terms of international risks, it states that any decline in International growth would impact Ireland. It states the upcoming Brexit referendum presents a risk to the stability of the EU itself. It states it would be impossible to know exactly what the probable impact on particular sectors would be if Brexit occurred.

it also states that if issues around mass migration into Europe are not resolved, it could undermine the EU's shared sense of purpose.

The threat of international terrorism is rated as not likely but it notes that events in 2015 and 2016 demonstrate it is possible. There is also the possibility that a state like Ireland could be used as a location from which attacks could be launched.

If this were to occur, the report says it could cause extreme disruption in the short-term and longer-term reputational damage.

It also states that there is a risk of failing to invest effectively in measures to minimise the impacts of climate change.

It notes the number who are now long term unemployed as a serious concern. While it states that 80% of healthcare expenditure relate to chronic diseases.

Cyber security and nuclear contamination are cited but it states the risk of a fallout from a nuclear accident is a low probability. It says anti-microbial resistance is  a risk at global and EU levels.