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'Is she or isn't she? Democratic delegate maths'

Sanders is not throwing in the towel but is Clinton over the line?
Sanders is not throwing in the towel but is Clinton over the line?

According to a super-delegate count by the Associated Press, Hillary Clinton has enough delegates to clinch the Democratic presidential nomination and can be called the presumptive nominee.

The former Secretary of State would make history as the first female to be a presidential nominee for either party.

However, both the Clinton camp, and the team behind her rival Bernie Sanders, have appealed to voters in the six states holding Democratic primary elections today, not to pay attention to the media reports and to continue to turn out to vote, writes RTÉ Washington Correspondent Caitríona Perry.

How did the Associated Press reach the decision where it felt it could call the Democratic race for Hillary Clinton?

It undertook a count of the superdelegates -  all 714 of them - and found that she had enough of their support to add to the pledged delegates (from states who’ve already held their primary elections) to reach the 2,383 simple majority of delegates she needs to secure the nomination.

Remind me again, what exactly is a superdelegate?

So that the Democratic party leadership can keep some control over who their nominee is (and avoid a scenario like the one currently playing out in the Republican party), the rules set aside 15% of the voting delegates at the selection convention in July to be unbound - or super - delegates.

They can vote for whichever candidate they want to, and they can change their mind.

These superdelegates are mostly elected officials, party faithful, congressmen and senators.

So while candidates can bank on the pledged delegates they score as they go through State contests, superdelegates only finally vote at the convention.

But in reality, the vast majority of these have publicly pledged their support for Hillary Clinton, and are unlikely to change their mind, as they are party stalwarts, who do not perhaps wish to vote for someone who just joined the party officially last year. Someone who has publicly said he did so just to run for president.

So how many superdelegates does Clinton have? Will some of them change their mind and vote for Sanders on the night?

Bernie Sanders would argue that they pledged their support for Clinton before the primary season began, before they saw how popular he is, and before they heard fully about his policies. He is hopeful he can persuade them to change their minds. He said at a press conference yesterday that in recent days he had persuaded four to do just that.

Currently Hillary Clinton has well over 500 superdelegates (AP says 571), Sanders has 46. She also has a comfortable lead in pledged delegates from the primary contests … she won Puerto Rico on Sunday, taking her to 1,812 to Sanders’ 1,521.

What about the votes on 7 June?

There are six states voting for Democrats today - the most populous state and a Democratic stronghold - California, another large state New Jersey, along with North and South Dakota, New Mexico and Montana. 

All in there are 684 pledged delegates up for grabs - 475 of them in California.  It has become a must-win state for both candidates.

All of those states except North Dakota are also holding a Republican primary today.

Will the announcement that Clinton already has enough delegates impact the race?

It was expected after today’s elections but not in advance of it.

It also doesn’t suit either camp and so both put out statements last night urging voters not to pay attention to the unofficial tally and to still come out to vote. 

For Clinton, it’s a limp victory of sorts, without the buoyancy of a big state victory. The kind of win she will hope for tonight, but the kind that is not guaranteed if the polling in California is accurate, where it’s neck and neck.

They both need voters not to stay at home today, because they either think Clinton has it in the bag and there’s nothing to be gained by voting for her; or because they think Bernie is yesterday’s man and again there’s no point voting for him.

Neither scenario is good for either candidate.

He needs a huge turnout from his voters, it’s the only chance he really has of stopping Clinton in her tracks, or at least slowing her, and then forcing a contested convention - where neither of them get the required majority of pledged delegates in advance and will rely on superdelegates votes at the convention to officially declare them the nominee.

What will happen now? Will Bernie Sanders cede the race? Is his continued presence damaging to Clinton? 

Sanders held a press conference late yesterday and said that he would look at how he does today.

He’s flying back to Vermont tonight and he’ll assess his situation in terms of carrying on the race, or endorsing Hillary. 

But he said his team is actively still courting superdelegates in an effort to sway them and he pointed out that he’s overwhelmingly winning with voters aged 45 and younger - the future of the party and the future of the country, he said. 

His path will largely hinge on California - if he wins that, it is a major blow to Clinton and arguably gives him reason to stay in the race to go to a contested convention. 


RTÉ Washington Correspondent Caitríona Perry