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UN expert hopes Ebola will soon be under control

A team carries the body of an Ebola victim for burial
A team carries the body of an Ebola victim for burial

The UN expert in charge of the United Nations response to Ebola has said he hopes the spread of the killer virus will be "under control" in three months.

Dr David Nabarro, the UN's special envoy on Ebola, said the number of cases in west African countries including Sierra Leone were increasing week-on-week.

But systems now put in place, along with international help, could help turn the tide and reduce the number of cases from one week to the next, Dr Nabarro told the BBC 5live Up All Night's Dotun Adebayo.

Dr Nabarro said: "As a result of the sensitisation programme last month I think we have got a much better community involvement, which leads me to believe that getting it under control within the next three months is a reasonable target."

He added: "When we have a disease outbreak like this there is a thing called the epidemic curve, which is numbers of cases over time, and at the moment that epidemic curve is increasing in an exponential fashion ... this means an upward-going curve and it's quite frightening because it means an acceleration.

"By under control I mean we bend the curve down, the numbers of cases each week diminishes compared with the previous week to the point where there is no new transmissions.

"For me under control means the epidemic curve is coming down and we are confident that the numbers of cases is reducing and will be eventually ended."

Dr Nabarro said people in the affected countries, which also include Liberia and Guinea, now had a better understanding of the need to stop the virus spreading by isolating themselves if they became infected.

He added: "The epidemiologists, the people who study disease, say that when 70% of those who have got the virus are enabled to avoid spreading it to others then the epidemic curve will come down and that's our target for the next 90 days."

Meanwhile, the head of Irish aid agency Goal has said it has received over 1,000 applications as part an emergency recruitment drive to tackle Ebola in west Africa.

The recruitment drive started just over two weeks ago. 

Barry Andrews said Goal’s ambition was to have a 50-bed emergency treatment unit for Ebola patients in Sierra Leone by early December.

He said Goal had received over 1,000 applications for 200 positions, with 600 from nurses and doctors.

He said there have not been many Irish applications, but Goal has been in constant contact with the HSE to try to free up some Irish staff.

Reacting to Dr Nabarro's hope that the Ebola outbreak in West Africa can be brought under control within three months, Mr Andrews said that had to be a realistic target. 

He said if 70% of patients are not in emergency treatment units by Christmas the disease will continue to increase exponentially.