Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd looks likely to lose the leadership to his deputy, Julia Gillard, at a vote of ruling-party lawmakers tonight.
Government lawmakers believe Gillard has a better chance than Rudd, who has been slipping in opinion polls, of winning the next election, which must be held within six months.
If successful, she would become the country's first woman prime minister.
Gillard is backed by Treasurer Wayne Swan who was tipped to become her deputy, ABC radio said.
Most of the 115 lawmakers from the ruling Labor party were swinging their support behind Gillard as of late tonight, the Sydney Morning Herald added.
Major factions of Rudd's party have lost faith that he can win the next election and can sell its re-election agenda, including a plan to tax miners and then use the proceeds to indirectly fund a boost to retirement incomes for all workers.
‘Those moving against him said he was certain to be ousted because they had secured the numbers for the deputy prime minister to win a ballot,’ the Australian Financial Review said.
A government led by Gillard, 48, a left-wing politician with strong trade union links, is expected to differ little in substance from one led by Rudd, though her supporters expect her to mount a much more effective defence of the mining tax.
The tax was announced in May and is set to apply from 2012, but Rudd has so far failed to persuade voters to back the move, with polls showing almost half of them are opposed to it and fear it will destroy jobs and investment.
Global miners such as Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Xstrata are expected to campaign strongly against the tax at the next election and help the conservative opposition's bid to oust Labor.
‘He's a goner. You can stick a fork in him,’ Monash University analyst Nick Economou said of Rudd's future as leader.
