A party that wants to split Belgium declared victory in a parliamentary election today.
The outcome could make it hard to form a coalition quickly and deliver austerity to contain a mounting national debt.
Belgium can ill afford drawn-out coalition talks because policy paralysis could make the country more vulnerable on financial markets that are closely watching a sovereign debt crisis among the 16 countries that use the euro.
The Flemish N-VA (New Flemish Alliance) was set to be the largest party in Dutch-speaking Flanders and in the country as a whole.
It advocates Belgium's gradual dissolution, with Flanders and French-speaking Wallonia going their separate ways.
The Interior Ministry projected the N-VA would win 31 of the 150 seats in the lower house of parliament, after just eight now.
It forecast heavy losses for the Christian Democrats and the liberals, former partners in government.
‘The N-VA has won the election today. We stand before you with a party that has some 30% (of the Flemish vote),’ N-VA leader Bart De Wever told cheering supporters who burst into a rendition of the Flemish national anthem.
‘This is more than I could have ever imagined. We had thought we'd get 24-25 percent so this is great news,’ N-VA supporter Mia Leyskens, 75, said at a post-election party.
The French-speaking Socialists (PS) were expected to gain four seats to have 24 overall.
With the socialists as a whole forming the largest group in parliament, PS leader Elio Di Rupo was the leading candidate to be the next prime minister.
De Wever has said he is open to the idea of a first French-speaking premier since 1974 if that would bring more powers to Flanders, and is willing to work with former rivals.
‘You don't have to like each other to work together,’ he said.
It is the first federal election from which a party advocating the end of Belgium could emerge the winner, although in the last election in 2007 the N-VA were allies of the victorious Christian Democrats.
Even if the N-VA is confirmed as the leading party in the country of 10.6 million people, which hosts the headquarters of the EU and the NATO military alliance, it will not be able to start devolving powers to the regions immediately.
‘Belgium is not about to split up, but it is set for a reorganisation,’ said Professor Marc Swyngedouw of the Catholic University of Leuven.
The electoral system - effectively two elections with separate parties seeking votes from French-speakers and the majority Dutch-speakers - means at least four parties will be needed to form a governing coalition.
Parties from poorer French-speaking regions see devolution as a step towards Belgium's break-up, which they oppose, but all have said they would consider some reform of the state.
The N-VA's lead in polls triggered a nationwide debate about the possible break-up of the 180-year-old nation, with richer Flanders splitting from Wallonia, where unemployment is about double the national average.
Yves Leterme, the Christian Democrat who won the 2007 election on a pledge to win more powers for Flanders, took nine months to form his five-party government and offered his resignation three times in as many years.
Economists say Belgium cannot afford more tortuous coalition talks, with its debt-to-GDP ratio set to rise above 100% this year or next, the third highest level in Europe behind Greece and Italy.
ING economist Philippe Ledent said it was important to get a coalition in place by September, adding: ‘After September, the reaction of the financial markets would lead to difficult consequences for the Belgian economy.’
Etienne de Callatay, economist at Bank Degroof, said he expected long coalition talks, delaying austerity measures and putting Belgium ‘behind other (euro zone) countries in regard to structural reform.’
Belgium also takes on the six-month presidency of the European Union on July 1, an organisational role that gives a country a chance to shine on the world stage.
Some analysts said the risks ahead and the embarrassment of having no government in place while Belgium holds the EU presidency could encourage party leaders to form a coalition more quickly than expected.
‘This will give them the incentive to take the initiative and not delay,’ said Tony Valcke, a political scientist at the University of Ghent.
