The European Commission says actions to stabilise the banking system and stimulate the economy could lead to the EU-wide recession bottoming out in the first three months of this year, with a slow recovery possible in the last quarter of 2009.
But the Commission figures show Ireland will have the second-worst performing economy in Europe, and that recovery here will be delayed until 2010.
There is some hope in an otherwise grim set of figures.
According to Commissioner for Economic and monetary Affairs Joachim Almunia, the EU economy could stop shrinking by the end of March, with the first small signs of recovery coming around October.
But that will only happen if the massive economic stimulus programmes arranged by 18 of the 27 states are effectively implemented - and if banks resume normal lending to businesses.
Even so, the EU economy will shrink by 1.8% this year, while unemployment and government debt levels will rise sharply.
Ireland appears to be particularly hard hit, with the economy set to shrink by 5% - by far the weakest performance in the euro area. In the wider EU only Latvia - down 7% - will be worse.
The Commission does project a rebound in Ireland's economy for 2010, when it says economic growth will have recovered to zero.
