A poll carried out for TG4 suggests that Fine Gael's Tom Hayes is set to win the South Tipperary by-election next Saturday. The MRBI poll suggests Senator Hayes will top the poll with 33% of the vote – that is an increase of 6% over his performance last year. Phil Prendergast of the Workers and Unemployed Action Group polled 28%. That is a drop of just under 3% on the performance last year of Seamus Healy, the Workers and Unemployed Action Group candidate who won the seat. Fianna Fáil's Michael Maguire is in third place with 23% of the vote, the same share as the party received in the last by-election in the constituency last year. Labour's Denis Landy is on 16 % in the poll - a drop of 1% over their last by-election performance.
Analysis of transfer patterns suggests Tom Hayes will stay ahead and take the seat. The TG4/MRBI poll says that he will take 38% of Denis Landy's transfers, compared to 31% going to Phil Prendergast. Michael Maguire's transfers are predicted to go 52% to Hayes, 19% to Prendergast. The biggest issue with voters, according to the poll, is health, with 59% of those polled naming it their top concern.
