As confirmed cases of the foot and mouth disease continue to rise today in Britain Agriculture Minister Nick Brown has warned that the epidemic is likely to last for many months. The latest number of confirmed cases now stands at 323. Four new cases of the disease were confirmed in Wales today. Although admitting that an exact timescale could not be put on the outbreak Mr Brown predicted that it would be at least three months before Britain could reclaim its foot and mouth disease free status.
British farmers' leaders have warned that agriculture could be at a standstill until the end of the year as vets admitted they were still a long way from defeating the foot and mouth epidemic. Chief veterinary officer Jim Scudamore said that the current crisis is far more severe than the 1967 outbreak. Already over 278,000 animals have been affected by the outbreak.
The British government, accused of incompetence in its handling of the crisis, has begun a campaign to convince farmers of the need for a mass cull of healthy livestock, to stop the spread of the disease. The controversial mass slaughter of healthy animals continues in the north of England and the south of Scotland. But plans for a mass cull in some areas, such as Cumbria and in Dumfries and Galloway, where the disease is rife, have been put on hold until Chief Vet Jim Scudamore meets farmers' leaders and vets tomorrow to explain the policy.
The Deputy Agriculture Minister visited farmers today ahead of Mr Scudamore’s visit. Joyce Quin said that while farmers were very concerned about government policy they were in favour of the overall plan. “There is huge support for the overall strategy of eradicating the disease and I believe that we will be able to work together in a co-operative spirit,” she said.
Disruption caused by the foot and mouth outbreak will cost the UK economy an estimated £9 billion this year, it is believed. The figure, which equates to 1.1% of gross domestic product (GDP), covers the loss of earnings for farmers and suppliers, higher food prices and the impact on the tourism industry.
The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) said its estimates had spiralled more than threefold since the start of the month. It also warned that the effect from the crisis would continue into next year, knocking another £2.1 billion from the GDP.
Assuming the rate of infection starts to diminish by the end of this month, the lost output for farmers and suppliers is thought to be £3.6 billion. Domestic tourism will lose £2.7 billion, with the dent to income from fewer foreign visitors set to be around £5.2 billion.
The figures are offset by income from more people buying foreign holidays and higher levels of spending on items other than tourism, such as DIY. Paul Crawford, CEBR senior economist, believed one of the most startling findings was the lower income from fewer foreign visitors. He said: “While a lot of domestic tourism expenditure will be reallocated into other activities, the potential loss from foreign tourism is massive.”
However, the EU's Commissioner for Agriculture is upbeat about preventing the disease spreading across Europe. Franz Fischler told a German Sunday newspaper that he thought that it was possible to have the problem fully under control in a few months, assuming there were no big outbreaks of foot and mouth in other EU Member States. The Commissioner also renewed his call for the foundation of a European food safety authority to restore consumer confidence.
