Here we are again! In another great year for Irish talent, we're primed for something that's been a long time coming - all the way back to when the Oscars began in 1929, in fact.
First off, a round of applause for Poor Things, produced by the Dublin-based Element Pictures with its 11 nominations, including Irish producers Ed Guiney and Andrew Lowe and cinematographer Robbie Ryan. An incredible achievement, and let's hope that the dark fantasy gets a rub of the green as one movie dominates the winners' list...
Just like The Zone of Interest is guaranteed to be named Best International Feature Film, 20 Days in Mariupol Best Documentary, and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Best Animated Feature, it's a given that Oppenheimer is going to win loads on Sunday.
And that brings us to a certain man from Cork...
On the biggest night of his career to date, Oppenheimer star Cillian Murphy takes centre stage as a nation holds its breath all over again and waits for that Best Actor envelope to be opened near the end of the show. What a moment.
Here's what we think will happen in the headline categories on Sunday:
Actress in a Supporting Role
The Nominees:
Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
Danielle Brookes - The Color Purple
America Ferrera - Barbie
Jodie Foster - Nyad
Da'Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
Winner: Da'Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
There was a cliffhanger last year to see if Angela Bassett or the eventual winner, Jamie Lee Curtis, would take home the gong, but 2024 is a done deal and then some for The Holdovers' breakout star Da'Vine Joy Randolph. The Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards and the Oscars have mirrored each other 21 times since 1995, and for her performance as The Holdovers' grieving cook Mary, Randolph has won the SAG Award and everything else - Independent Spirit Award, the BAFTA, the Critics Choice Award and the Golden Globe - in the run-up to Sunday. This is a victory march to match any in Oscars history, and if you haven't seen The Holdovers, cancel all plans before Sunday!
Actor in a Supporting Role
The Nominees:
Sterling K Brown - American Fiction
Robert De Niro - Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr - Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling - Barbie
Mark Ruffalo - Poor Things
Winner: Robert Downey Jr - Oppenheimer
A salute to Hollywood's great survivor. Fifteen years after he was nominated for Best Supporting Actor for Tropic Thunder and 31 years after he was shortlisted for Best Actor for Chaplin, there is no doubt that Robert Downey Jr will finally get his hands on the gold in the Dolby Theatre. For doing arguably the best work of his storied CV as Oppenheimer antagonist Lewis Strauss, Downey already has the Golden Globe, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and Screen Actors Guild (SAG) prizes on the mantelpiece, with the SAG winner going on to win the Oscar on 20 occasions since 1995. He's a legend; the goodwill among his peers - the voters - is immense; and this is also an opportunity to honour A-list clout, character actor class, and a life-affirming story of recovery. Expect one of the loudest cheers of the night and, hopefully, one of the best speeches.
Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay
The Nominees - Adapted Screenplay:
American Fiction
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
The Nominees - Original Screenplay:
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives
The Winners: American Fiction (Cord Jefferson), Anatomy of a Fall (Justine Triet and Arthur Harari)
More guesswork than usual here with the Writers Guild of America (WGA) Awards - one of the key indicators - deferred until April because of the writers' strike and Anatomy of a Fall's Justine Triet and Arthur Harari ineligible under WGA rules. What can be said is that American Fiction and Anatomy of a Fall have enjoyed great awards season momentum up to this point - and that looks set to continue this weekend. Also, the wins will be a chance to honour a first-time writer-director in American Fiction's Cord Jefferson and a female writer-director in Anatomy of a Fall's Triet. Writer-directors are cherished by Oscar voters - witness screenplay wins for Belfast's Kenneth Branagh, Promising Young Woman's Emerald Fennell, Women Talking's Sarah Polley, CODA's Sian Heder, The Father's Florian Zeller, Jojo Rabbit's Taika Watiti, BlacKkKlansman's Spike Lee, Moonlight's Barry Jenkins, and The Big Short's Adam McKay in recent years - and that will continue on Sunday night.
Actress in a Leading Role
The Nominees:
Annette Benning - Nyad
Lily Gladstone - Flowers of the Killer Moon
Sandra Hüller - Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan - Maestro
Emma Stone - Poor Things
The Winner: Lily Gladstone - Flowers of the Killer Moon
The only acting category, it seems, with some real drama this year in terms of voting. It's between Killers of the Flower Moon's Lily Gladstone and Poor Things' Emma Stone, who is going for her second Best Actress win after La La Land. Both Gladstone and Stone won in their respective categories (Drama and Musical or Comedy) at the Golden Globes. Stone won at the BAFTAs to gain momentum, but Gladstone, tellingly, won at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards last month. The SAG Awards and the Oscars have mirrored each other for Best Actress 21 times since 1995. More importantly, this is a chance for Academy voters to make history by honouring Gladstone's performance as the moral centre of Killers of the Flower Moon: a win would see her become the first Native American woman to win Best Actress. That's the hand of fate right there.
Directing
The Nominees:
Justine Triet - Anatomy of a Fall
Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
Yorgos Lanthimos - Poor Things
Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest
The Winner: Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
A foregone conclusion. The winner of the Directors Guild of America (DGA) Award has been honoured with the Best Director Oscar on all but eight occasions since the 1940s. Oppenheimer's Christopher Nolan won the DGA Award last month and it would be the shock of shocks if he didn't get the Oscar - the talk has been of little else. He has five nominations in the rear-view for Memento, Inception, and Dunkirk, and Nolan is up for three this year with Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay being the others. The Best Director Oscar statuette is guaranteed to have some company in the office next week.
Best Picture
The Nominees:
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
The Winner: Oppenheimer
No doubts here, either. Oppenheimer leads this year's Oscar nominations with 13 nods, and this is among the wins that are guaranteed. The rule of thumb is that any film that has won the big ones at the Directors Guild of America (DGA), Producers Guild of America (PGA), Writers Guild of America (WGA) and Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards has won the Oscar for Best Picture. Now, this year the WGA Awards are delayed until April due to the knock-on effect of the writers' strike, but Oppenheimer will still come out on top. The story carries global weight; it has dominated awards season with Golden Globe, BAFTA, and Critics Choice wins in this category too. It's the biggest biopic of all time at the box office; and the Oscar winner for Best Picture has mirrored the PGA winner 24 times since 1990. Although this is the only Oscars category that's a one to ten preferential ballot, it feels like Oppenheimer will receive more than 50% of first-preference votes without having to rely on second preferences to get the win.
Actor in a Leading Role
The Nominees:
Bradley Cooper - Maestro
Colman Domingo - Rustin
Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
Jefferey Wright - American Fiction
The Winner: Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
Deep breath. Although it looks like all the movie planets are aligned for Cillian Murphy, Ireland wouldn't be Ireland if fingers the length and breadth of the country weren't crossed too. The facts are these: since 1995, there have been 23 years where the Best Actor winner at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards also went on to win the Academy Award. Murphy won the SAG gong last month. He also won the BAFTA and Golden Globe en route to the Dolby Theatre in a year when the great Paul Giamatti was seen as his main competition for his superb turn in The Holdovers - he won the Golden Globe for Musical or Comedy and the Critics Choice Award. But Murphy is the centrepoint in an epic that has dominated awards season, and Academy voters love an actor playing a real-life person - 12 Best Actor wins since 2005 for a portrayal. Murphy's win will make history: the first Irish-born performer to receive the Academy Award for Best Actor. What's rare is wonderful - just like a bit of good news to be waking up to of a Monday morning!
The 96th Academy Awards take place at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles on Sunday night and will be broadcast on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player on Monday from 9:35pm.
