How rural areas are the 'front line' in electrifying Irish transport

Analysis: The rapid shift to electric cars poses unique challenges for rural Ireland's electricity distribution networks

By David McCloskey and Brian Caulfield, TCD

Recent geopolitical events have underscored Ireland's heavy reliance on global fossil fuel markets. The transport sector in particular remains particularly difficult to decarbonise. Despite rising electric vehicle sales, 95% of its energy demand is still met by oil-based products, necessitating the import of 9 million tons of fuel annually. This dependency directly impacts the cost of living and drives inflation.

Transitioning to electric cars is critical for meeting carbon reduction targets and achieving energy independence. They are significantly more efficient than internal combustion engines - boasting 80% efficiency compared to just 25% - and allow the use of renewable sources like solar and wind. However, reaching the national target of 845,000 EVs by 2030 will require a substantial acceleration in adoption.

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Rural Ireland and cars

Research from Trinity College Dublin emphasises that rural areas are the 'front line' of this transition. While rural regions house only 36% of the population, they account for 55% of transport emissions. This disparity stems from:

• High Car Dependency: Limited public transport options compared to urban centres.
• Travel Distance: Rural households travel up to three times further on average.

Targeting decarbonisation in these areas offers the highest potential for impact. However, the rapid shift to EVs poses unique challenges for Ireland's rural low-voltage (LV) distribution networks, which must be reinforced to handle the increased electrical load from home charging.

Challenges for the grid

Ireland’s electrical grid faces a critical challenge, namely the shift from diverse household energy use to synchronised, high-power loads. Historically, rural networks were designed for "load diversity", assuming neighbours wouldn't use high-draw appliances simultaneously.

For instance, a typical pole-mounted transformer serving six homes has a 15 kW capacity. While sufficient for kettles (3 kW) or showers (7 kW) used briefly, it is ill-equipped for modern technologies.

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An EV charger requires 7.3 kW sustained for approximately seven hours. If just two of six households charge simultaneously, the local transformer risks overloading, overheating, and premature failure. While off-peak night-time incentives (02:00–05:00) encourage adoption, they may eventually create a new "synchronised peak" that the infrastructure cannot handle without more flexible, smart-charging approaches.

What regions are at connection capacity?

Research consolidating data from the Department of Transport, SEAI and the CSO reveals a troubling overlap between high EV adoption and grid constraints. While urban centres like Dublin currently maintain available capacity, the "commuter belts" and rural regions - specifically Meath, Kildare, and Wicklow - are experiencing the fastest growth in EV registrations while facing the most severe grid limitations.

The scale of the issue is significant:

• 56.8% of all listed substations (over 26,000 units) already experience capacity constraints.
• These "red areas" effectively have no room for additional high-power connections.

Without proactive infrastructure reinforcement and better load management, these grid bottlenecks could soon stall Ireland's transition to electric transport, creating a geographic divide in EV viability.

ESB Networks, who build and develop the electricity distribution system across Ireland, faces the difficult task of prioritising grid upgrades. Research suggests that focusing solely on population density is insufficient for transport decarbonisation. Instead, targeting lower-density rural areas is essential to create the backbone required for a timely national transition.

The most impactful solution identified is smart charging. Coordinated strategies including scheduling, queuing services, and flexible demand can spread electrical loads over wider windows, significantly reducing strain on local infrastructure.

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Urgent collaboration is required between policymakers, grid operators, and EV stakeholders to implement these flexible options. While official wait times for upgrades are listed at 12 weeks, rural implementations can actually take years, and because private transport in rural Ireland is a necessity, not a luxury, these upgrades must be high priority.

Proactive grid reinforcement is vital to prevent negative customer experiences from stalling the momentum of Ireland's green transition.

If you are living in a rural area and considering moving to an EV, you can use this app to help decide the appropriate battery size and calculate your savings. The full research paper can be found here.

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Dr David McCloskey is an associate professor of Science of Energy and Energy systems at Trinity College Dublin. He is a Research Ireland awardee. Prof Brian Caulfield is a professor in Transportation in the Department of Civil, Structural and Environmental Engineering at Trinity College Dublin. He is a Research Ireland awardee. This research was based on work conducted with Alexander Voss and Dr Abhilash Singh.

The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ