Analysis: The shortcuts our brains use to make decisions quickly can mean distortions in how we process information about third-level courses
It's that time of year again when attention turns to choosing a college course. This decision, perhaps one of biggest life decisions to date, can feel emotional, challenging and even overwhelming, with the inherent fear of getting it wrong. On the one hand, it is great to have so many options but, on the other, it can feel like a heavy burden. Parents and guardians also feel this pressure.
Our brains like predictability, familiarity and certainty, as it takes less energy to make decisions. We make up to 65% of our daily decisions in a habitual, intuitive manner, minimising the cognitive energy required. Researchers Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky have shown that our brains have developed systems and mental shortcuts — often known as heuristics — to help us make decisions quickly, reduce cognitive effort and manage uncertainty.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Drivetime, Minister for Further and Higher Education James Lawless on the upcoming CAO deadline for applying for third-level courses
This, in turn, can lead to cognitive biases and distortions in how we process information and make judgements. It is at times when decisions are uncertain, emotional and pressurised that such cognitive biases emerge resulting in thinking errors.
Brain imaging of the maturing teenage and young adult brain reveals that areas that respond to emotions, reward and social belonging are particularly active. The prefrontal cortex — the area of the brain responsible for planning, reasoning, weighing up pros and cons and considering consequences — is less developed. As such, the teenage brain is more likely to engage in emotional decision-making, even for consequential ones such as course and college selection.
Self-awareness in career decision-making helps strike a balance between the emotional and rational aspects of the brain. Analysing how our brain’s proneness to bias may influence career thinking can increase self-awareness and lead to more optimal decision-making.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Drivetime, are parents keeping kids away from apprenticeships?
Here's are some common thinking biases which can unconsciously shape choices, with prompts for students, parents, guardians and guidance counsellors to support reflection on how these blind spots may influence course choice.
Social proof / conformity bias
Humans are wired to take our lead from others, particularly in times of uncertainty. As such, the social environment of school and peers can create a form of groupthink, where students perceive that others "like me" tend to choose a particular course or college. This can lead to anxiety about standing out or feeling inferior if not conforming to perceived expectations.
If peers were not considering this option, would it still feel as important? What alternative options have been genuinely considered? Whose opinions are being listened to most, and why?
Status bias
Some courses and colleges are deemed to have higher value or status; medicine, law, engineering or IT, particularly when studied in a "prestigious" institution. Social and familial expectations can lead to becoming caught up in the CAO points race, prioritising course title and reputation over the relevance of course content to an individual's interests, aptitudes and values.
If the course title and college were blanked out, would the content still be interesting? How important is it to attend a particular college? Is media coverage influencing decision-making?
From Intermittent Diverson, how heuristics can lead to cognitive biases and distortions in how we process information and make judgements
Loss aversion
Research shows that we tend to dislike losses more than we like equivalent gains. Once time, effort or money has been invested, changing direction can feel risky. In terms of course choice, this may involve expectations around points, paid grinds, subject choices or publicly stated plans. Any shift can feel like a loss of invested time, money or identity, leading to avoidance of potentially more suitable options.
If there were total freedom of choice, what might be a wise choice? What might be lost in the future by sticking with an uncertain path?
Confirmation bias
When a course option is strongly favoured, information may be sought and interpreted in ways that justify that preference, while contrary views are not really taken on board.
If the decision was cross-examined, what evidence would justify it? Has any contrary information been dismissed too quickly? What advice would be given to a friend?
Over-confidence / under-confidence bias
Both over and under confidence can influence a student's course choice. Overconfidence may involve underestimating the workload or research required, often due to limited experience. Under-confidence can persist despite extensive research, driven by fears of failure or not being "good enough", leading to less ambitious choices. In both cases, examining evidence can support realistic confidence calibration and a stronger sense of agency.
Rate confidence in the decision on a scale of on to 10. What informs that rating? If fear of failure was removed, what might be the best choice?
From RTÉ Radio 1's Brendan O'Connor Show, Brendan Kelly, Professor of Psychiatry at Trinity College Dublin, on how the brain develops over the decades and why 32 is a crucial age for the brain's re-wiring
Stereotyping
Stereotyping can significantly narrow perceived career options. Gender based assumptions, socioeconomic background or community expectations can create a sense that "people like me" do or do not belong in certain careers. This can limit exploration and narrow opportunity.
With complete freedom, what choice might be made? What assumptions are being made about who belongs in certain careers? Has any advice received been based on stereotypes?
Deeper research on options and routes, as well as listening to informed impartial advice, will support informed decision making
Becoming aware of how bias influences thinking allows decisions to be viewed from multiple perspectives. Your career is not a straight road. Indeed, it is more the art of crazy paving, where many factors influence where the next stone is laid. Knowing the direction of travel and laying the next paving stone with an informed course choice is a great place to begin a career journey.
When choosing a course, start with the ideal. Spend time doing structured reflection on career motivation, building a map of values, interests, personally and skills. Potential career pathways will emerge from this map. Deeper research on options and routes, as well as listening to informed impartial advice, will support informed decision making. When ticking the CAO boxes, being strategic and having a plan B and plan B will bring confidence. Making the best bias free choice for the right rational reasons is the right choice at this life stage.
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The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
