Analysis: The EU has gone from a total ban on petrol and diesel cars by 2035 to a more complex approach aiming for a 90% reduction in transport emissions
The European Union has fundamentally reshaped its automotive roadmap, transitioning from a rigid 2035 ban on internal combustion engines to a 90% carbon reduction target. This shift, proposed in December 2025, acknowledges the industrial and economic hurdles that made a total phase-out politically untenable. By moving the goalposts, the EU has extended the life of the combustion engine, though it must now exist in an extremely challenging regulatory environment.
The new standards
The finalised Euro 7 regulation reflects the walking back of the proposed 2035 ban. While early drafts suggested drastic cuts to tailpipe pollutants, the version implemented from late 2026 will maintain Euro 6 exhaust limits for passenger cars and vans. The regulation instead focuses on pollutants that affect all vehicles, including electric ones, by setting the first ever limits for particulate matter from brake wear and microplastics from tyre abrasion.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Morning Ireland, EU yields to pressure from automakers as it rethinks 2035 combustion car ban
It introduces mandates for battery durability, requiring electric and hybrid batteries to maintain at least 80% capacity after five years or 100,000 kilometres. This shift ensures that vehicles remain cleaner over a longer lifespan, with compliance monitoring now extended to 200,000 kilometres.
Can a hybrid fleet reach the 90% target?
Replacing the 100% ban with a 90% reduction target still presents an enormous challenge for EU car makers, who are failing to match the rapid pace of development of Chinese and Korean manufacturers. The realities of this transition will still force a majority shift to fully electric or highly efficient hybrids that will rely on electric propulsion far more than current hybrid models. With the EU's 2021 fleet baseline sitting at approximately 115g of CO2 per kilometre, a 90% reduction requires a manufacturer’s fleet average to drop to roughly 11.5g per kilometre.
Most standard full hybrids currently emit between 80g and 100g of CO2 per kilometre, meaning a fleet dominated by these vehicles would fail the target by a massive margin. Even high-end plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) have official ratings around 20g to 25g per kilometre.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's News At One, fuel costs to rise by 5 cent a litre in 2026
To achieve a fleet average of 11.5g, a manufacturer would still need at least 50 to 60% of its sales to be zero-emission battery electric vehicles to balance out the remaining share of efficient hybrids. While the combustion engine has been saved, it will only be economically viable in a marketplace where the vast majority of other cars sold are fully electric.
Green fuels and greenwashing
The 10% flexibility in the new target is designed to be supported by vehicles running on carbon-neutral e-fuels or offset by "green steel" credits. While technically promising, the environmental and economic credibility of e-fuels remains under intense scrutiny.
From an environmental perspective, e-fuels are significantly less efficient than direct electrification. Converting renewable electricity into hydrogen and then into a liquid fuel results in a total energy efficiency of roughly 16%, compared to approximately 77% for a battery electric vehicle. Furthermore, burning e-fuels still produces nitrogen oxides and other pollutants, meaning they do not address urban air quality issues as effectively as electric powertrains.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Today with Claire Byrne in Oct 2025, new report finds plug-in hybrids pollute almost as much as petrol cars
Economically, e-fuels are currently a premium product. With production costs estimated to keep pump prices between €3 and €5 per litre, they risk becoming a luxury loophole for high-performance sports cars rather than a viable mass market solution. If the cost of running a car on synthetic petrol remains several times higher than charging an electric vehicle, the survival of the combustion engine may be limited to the wealthiest segment of the market or specialised commercial sectors.
What are the implications of all of this for Irish drivers?
For the average motorist on the M50 or M7, this policy U-turn provides significant clarity. Because internal combustion technology no longer faces a hard legal end in 2035, the resale value of existing petrol and diesel cars is likely to remain stable for longer.
But due to the significant cost of diesel engine emission controls and associated taxes, it is likely that very few new cars will be filling up from the black pump in the coming years. As a fuel for heavy duty vehicles, it is likely that diesel will persist for many decades. These larger vehicles can absorb the cost of expensive emission control systems and current battery technology is not viable in many of these use cases.
Because there is no longer a hard legal ban in 2035, the resale value of existing petrol and diesel cars is likely to remain stable for longer
The automotive landscape of the 2030s will not be a binary choice between a battery or combustion engine, but rather a diverse mix of pure electric vehicles for the mass market and high-tech hybrids or e-fuel-compatible engines for niche needs. It is highly likely that by 2035 the vast majority of personal cars will still be fully electric, as a consequence of taxation more so than consumer preference for the technology. The EU has essentially traded the simplicity of a total ban for a more complex, technology-neutral approach that prioritises economic stability while still pushing for a 90% reduction in transport emissions.
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The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
