Analysis: The key factor in determining how much post-match content soccer fans watch is actually the pleasure people take from the misfortune of others
It may come as a surprise to many, but economists have given quite a bit of thought to developing a theory of demand for soccer. One of the key drivers which determines the consumption of matches is outcome uncertainty. Essentially, games which are close contests produce interest because fans want to see who wins. The only issue with this theory is that it doesn't help us explain more modern aspects of soccer consumption.
A lot of consumption today occurs post-match when the outcome is already known, and so, outcome uncertainty can’t be a factor. For example, Sky Sports Premier League’s official YouTube channel has, at the time of writing, over 5.7 million subscribers who regularly watch short highlights videos of every Premier League match after the final outcome is already known by viewers.
Recent research by Dr. Robbie Butler and myself has put forward a general theory for the consumption of post-match content which adjusts for this difference between live- and post-match material. Rather than outcome uncertainty, the key factor in determining post-match consumption is actually schadenfreude tendencies among fans. Schadenfreude is a German phrase which refers to the pleasure people enjoy due to the misfortune of others and most soccer fans will admit to this type of joy.
Arsenal Fan TV (AFTV), a YouTube channel devoted to discussion of Arsenal, is a great example of these schadenfreude tendencies at work. Former Arsenal midfielder Ray Parlour famously clashed with AFTV's Robbie Lyle during a live radio show over AFTV. Parlour suggested that AFTV thrived on negativity and benefited from poor Arsenal performances because rival fans tuned in to watch Arsenal supporters having meltdowns.
A look at the screenshot of the most watched AFTV videos makes this hard to argue with. Of the 12 most watched videos on AFTV, nine relate to post-match reactions and eight of these are reactions to Arsenal losing matches - in most cases quite heavily. Despite being run by and for Arsenal fans, a lot of the highly viewed videos on AFTV seem to relate to incredibly negative occasions for the Gunners. A quick look through the comments on these videos will explain why this is the case, rival fans drive the consumption.
While Arsenal losing 4-nil to Liverpool represents an unpleasant experience for any Arsenal fan, it creates quite an amusing watch for fans of Liverpool and those who dislike the North London side and their fans. Experiencing schadenfreude in the wake of an unpleasant event for another football club is not exclusive to the rivals of Arsenal.
From Daragh O'Leary, interview with Jonathan Morley
A recent interview with Irish TikTok star and Liverpool fan Jonathan Morley confirmed that this theory extends to his own work. Morley explained that the videos of his which do the best are the post-match reactions following bad results for Liverpool.
This is something which seems to apply to all Big-Six clubs in the Premier League. As can be seen below, the average number of views which a highlights video of a Premier League match gets on the Sky Sports Premier League's official YouTube channel featuring the Big-Six clubs is highest when those teams lose.
Manchester United jump from just under 1.6 million views per game to just shy of 1.8 million views when they lose. It is the blue side of Manchester however which seem to experience the largest increase in views when they lose. Manchester City go from an average of just over 1.1 million views per game to over 1.6 million views when they lose. Success (and FFP charges) clearly boost enemies!
While rival fans enjoying an upsetting result for a certain club likely explains a large amount of the increase in post-match consumption, it's also possible that part of the increase is due matches where Big-Six teams lose producing an unexpected result.
By dint of being the "bigger" clubs, one would assume that Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man United, Man City, and Spurs should be winning most matches. Accordingly, when they lose a match this is not just an upsetting result for them, but also a more unusual result which peaks the interest of fans. This is likely to be a huge factor with matches relating to the best performing teams in the Big-Six given that any match where they fail to accumulate three points has a major baring on the title race.
While this makes for an interesting study into the behaviours of football fans, it does pose an interesting issue for the football world. The marketing and engagement strategies of broadcasters, media outlets, and content creators stand to gain from leveraging off the negative emotions of fans to maximise engagement. The world of football broadcasting now represents an increasingly toxic landscape. Gains made by content creators from discussing humiliating results and meltdowns come at the cost of other consumers' welfare.
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The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
