Why is Sudan back in the news again?

Analysis: As the country's brutal war takes a new turn, the latest atrocities unleashed on the Sudanese population have been truly shocking

After a long absence from our headlines, the war in Sudan suddenly gained attention recently with the long-predicted fall of the city of El Fasher, in the country’s western region of Darfur. The atrocities unleashed on the population have been truly shocking, at a time when many of us are already numb after hearing so many stories of human suffering from other conflicts.

But these events have not come out of the blue and are part of larger war and even longer history. The war has been fuelled by powerful outside actors who somehow escape anyone’s attention.

What has been happening in the last few weeks?

One of the two main groups fighting in Sudan’s war, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has laid siege to the city of El Fasher for the last 18 months. It follows a pattern seen in the rest of Darfur, which they now control, namely cutting off food supplies, water and medication to weaken the city's inhabitants. In this case, they even built an earthen berm (a large bank) around the city to prevent people from leaving. Those caught escaping were subjected to extortion, sexual violence or random killings.The city was the last stronghold in Darfur of the state, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF).

We need your consent to load this rte-player contentWe use rte-player to manage extra content that can set cookies on your device and collect data about your activity. Please review their details and accept them to load the content.Manage Preferences

From RTÉ News, UN warns of 'intensified hostilities' ahead in Sudan

El Fasher was eventually overrun by the RSF at the end of October, unleashing even worse atrocities on the civilians, based on their non-Arab ethnicity. Yale University’s Humanitarian Research Lab has provided chilling evidence, most recently using satellite images of large-scale killings and now mass burials. The crimes included the killing of 460 patients and staff at one hospital, and the torture and summary execution of prisoners. Many of these have been shared on the perpetrators’ social media feeds, and later verified.

There is no doubt that appalling war crimes are being committed – such as the targeting of civilians – and possibly genocide. The heartfelt cries after the Holocaust of "never again" have given way to the reality of "again and again".

None of this has come as a surprise as it was widely predicted by international agencies, Sudanese civil society and the UN. It also echoes the mass displacement and killings carried out by the same group in the early 2000s.

From RTÉ Radio 1's Today with Claire Byrne, 'bloody sands visible from space': report on how Sudan's emergency grows deeper as massacre continues

Who lives there?

Darfur in the west of Sudan was a city of more than a million people, many of whom have tried to flee. It was also an area where hundreds of thousands had sought refuge from earlier ethnic cleansing from 2003 onwards. Hundreds of thousands lived in camps for Internally Displaced People (IDPs) such as Zam Zam, which had become permanent settlements.

The region of Darfur is home to several ethnic groups, who have lived together for many years, often with effective traditions for handling differences between them. The big division is between the Arab and non-Arab (mainly African) people. This was the basis for the previous conflict in Darfur, when the government clamped down on a move for more autonomy in 2003 with a brutal campaign based on ethnicity. There was a large joint peacekeeping force from the African Union and the United Nations (UNAMID), but this was often resisted by the government and left in 2020.

Humanitarian access by Sudanese and international organisations has been almost impossible during the long siege. People have been reduced to eating animal fodder or boiling cow hides for food.

From RTÉ Radio 1's Drivetime, UNICEF's Sheldon Yett on the humanitarian crisis in Sudan following the fall of El Fasher to the RSF rebel group

Who are the main groups in the war in Sudan?

The main armed groups in Sudan’s war were once in government together, but a bitter power struggle broke out in 2023 between these elites. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) were not only the military and its security services, but have effectively ruled Sudan for decades.

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) was a government-backed militia which was brought even closer to the regime to assist the SAF in controlling Sudan. They were originally from Darfur and known as the Janjaweed, a violent militia armed and backed by the authoritarian regime in the early 2000s.

This is why the current crisis is so extreme. As the Janjaweed, they worked alongside the army to carry out ethnic cleansing, sexual violence and killings in Darfur. They are drawn from the Arab population, and targeted non-Arab groups living in Darfur – just as they are doing now. The International Criminal Court indicted the regime’s leaders for genocide and war crimes.

From RTÉ Radio 1's Morning Ireland, 'brutal attacks, sexual violence, executions': UNHCR's Assadullah Nasrullah describes the situation on the ground amidst the violence in Sudan

What are they fighting about?

The RSF and the SAF have been engaged with a power struggle, which erupted into open warfare between them in April 2023. But civilians have paid the highest price, with an estimated 150,000 being killed since then. There has also been mass displacement of about 12 million people, amounting to nearly a quarter of Sudan’s population. Sudan is easily the world’s largest humanitarian crisis, in terms of absolute numbers.

While the two heavily armed groups are fighting each other, the conflict has taken on an ethnic component, making it much harder to recover from in the future. Particular ethnic groups suspected of supporting the other side are targeted. There has been widespread sexual violence and famine has resulted from the displacement and fighting.

Ironically, Sudan saw a period of extraordinary bravery and hope in 2019, when president Omar al-Bashir's authoritarian regime was overthrown by popular protests. His 30-year rule had been marked by repression and corruption. But the military was deeply embedded in the state’s institutions and, although they dumped him and aligned with the protesters in the end, relinquishing real power was not on their agenda. A delicate transition period of joint military and civilian rule was supposed to lead to elections and democracy. But despite the strength and courage of Sudanese civil society, this was upended and a coup saw the military retake full control. A few months later, hostilities between the SAF and RSF broke out.

From RTÉ Radio 1's Morning Ireland, call for UAE government to stop funding Sudanese militia

Who are their international backers?

Both sides have powerful external backers, as seen by the fact they have been able to continue fighting for more than two years. The RSF, which was a militia, now uses sophisticated drones and artillery. Their main backer is the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which wants to extend its influence across the region. Although the UAE denies it is supporting the RSF, this has been widely documented.

The SAF, representing the state, is meanwhile backed by its northern neighbour, Egypt. Cairo has strategic concerns over water, as the Nile flows through Sudan and provides nearly all of Egypt's water. Turkey (a major arms producer) and Iran have also provided support to the SAF.

There has been media coverage of all this if you look for it and international agencies have highlighted it. Western powers quietly express concern, but have also pursued their own priorities and interests: they have important relationships with the major backers in the Middle East, such as the UAE.

Displaced Sudanese people walk in the Um Yanqur camp which is comprised of tents. Photo: Getty Images

What efforts have been made to end the war?

Talks have been proposed or hosted by a number of international players, including the US, Saudi Arabia and (ironically) the UAE and Egypt. The main Sudanese players have sometimes even sent representatives and agreed to ceasefires. But there is little political will, and the ceasefires break down almost immediately.

The capital Khartoum was retaken by the SAF earlier this year. With the fall of El Fasher, the RSF now controls Darfur in the west, and is active in South Kordofan. There may be a de facto east-west partitioning of Sudan – Africa’s third largest country – with the SAF holding the capital and the east, and the RSF keeping the west.

What are the immediate needs?

The first requirement is to stop the attacks. Ceasefire proposals have been on the table, and the RSF responded to reports of the atrocities by saying they were willing to engage in a humanitarian truce. Humanitarian access to Darfur is another immediate priority: like Gaza, aid blockades have been used as a weapon, with civilians paying the price.

A real and lasting solution needs the people of Sudan to be involved

Ultimately, international pressure on those backing the warring parties, especially the UAE, is needed. Without this, both sides do not see any need to negotiate seriously on a longer term settlement. Any such agreement would probably be a carve-up of the spoils by two elites, but would at least stop the fighting for now.

A real and lasting solution needs the people of Sudan to be involved. There are many brave and resourceful civil society organisations, which seemed so close to winning a real transition in 2019. That time seems a long way off now.

Follow RTÉ Brainstorm on WhatsApp and Instagram for more stories and updates

The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ