Analysis: While the latest ceasefire in Gaza is under strain, Irish history shows this does not necessarily mean the wider peace plan will fail
With news that the latest ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has already been violated and is deteriorating amid escalating tensions, it raises an important question: how can ceasefires actually be sustained? You may assume the key to a successful ceasefire is the total absence of violations. Yet, as leading scholars of peace studies and conflict resolution have pointed out, "violations, whether intentional or not, are the rule rather than the exception".
History shows that even flawed ceasefires can still create the space needed for peace to take hold. Over 1,500 violations occurred during the ceasefire that ended the Irish War of Independence. These violations risked a return to fighting, exacerbated tensions between bitter opponents, and gave MPs an excuse to attack the British government's conciliatory policy in Ireland, further aggravating an already highly pressurised situation. Despite this, the Anglo-Irish Truce endured for six months and created the breathing space necessary for politicians to negotiate the Anglo-Irish Treaty.
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But even though the latest ceasefire in Gaza is already under strain, this does not necessarily mean the ceasefire and the wider peace plan (as laid out in the US-brokered 20-point Gaza peace plan) will fail. A great deal relies upon how the interested parties respond, including Israel, Hamas, the US and other third parties.
A multinational force led by the US has been appointed to assist in monitoring the Gaza ceasefire. The force’s exact role has yet to be fully defined, but it could prove crucial in verifying alleged violations and determining proportionate responses. If done correctly, this could strengthen the ceasefire by increasing both sides’ confidence that the other is being held accountable.
Forces on the ground (such as the IDF and Hamas fighters) also have a role to play. When a violation occurs, they face a choice: escalate the situation and respond in kind (as has ostensibly been chosen so far in Gaza) or allow the mechanisms in the ceasefire agreement (if/where they exist) to address the incident. They also need to be aware of spoiler behaviour by those unhappy with the ceasefire who wish to disrupt it.
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In the Irish context, Crown forces liaised directly with the IRA in the event of violations. This created a direct line of communication between both sides and allowed for rapid responses when violations occurred. While violations of the Anglo-Irish Truce were not as deadly as recent violations in Gaza (most were non-lethal), lessons can be learned from how the liaison arrangements endeavoured to sustain the Truce in Ireland.
The IRA violated the ceasefire after it kidnapped two policemen in Roscommon. In turn, the local police escalated the situation by sending a large force to secure their colleagues' release. Remarkably, no one was wounded or killed during the release operation, but the IRA men guarding the policemen were arrested themselves.
Luckily, both sides' liaison officers were nearby: they acted quickly and acknowledged both sides had violated the agreement. Divisional Commissioner Wilbond agreed to order the release of the IRA men taken prisoner, whereas his IRA counterpart, Fintan Murphy, had the IRA officers who ordered the initial arrest of the policemen disciplined.
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Regular communication between liaison officers also helped prevent potential flashpoints. In one instance, a head constable in Kildare asked the IRA’s liaison officer to stop a Dáil court from convening (the British authorities regarded such courts as violations of the truce). Rather than cancel the session, the IRA quietly changed its time and location so it could proceed without police interference, defusing a potential confrontation.
Much depends on the spirit with which those responsible for overseeing the ceasefire conduct themselves, and their willingness to cooperate with the enemy. Wilbond and Murphy developed a good working relationship during their time as liaison officers, despite being on opposing sides. When Murphy was promoted to a more influential position, Wilbond wrote to thank him for his help and admitted he was "pleased to see you are now promoted to a wider sphere of usefulness".
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Of course, liaising did not always function so well. In the southernmost areas of Ireland, which saw the highest levels of violence, the liaison arrangements never operated effectively until November, the fifth month of the ceasefire. The IRA's liaison officers in the area had resigned in October, alleging that Crown forces constantly violated the ceasefire.
Unsurprisingly, the same complaint was made by the police against the IRA in the area. A military officer had remarked that one of the IRA's liaison officers had "an exaggerated opinion of his own importance [and] was not likely to be of any assistance in making matters run smoothly". Such sentiments were not conducive to a cooperative atmosphere.
Regardless of some local troubles, Hamar Greenwood, the chief secretary for Ireland and a member of the British cabinet, had "no doubt" that the "leaders of Sinn Féin are genuinely anxious to fulfil the [ceasefire] obligations they have entered into".
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Morning Ireland, why was the Israel/Hamas ceasefire so delayed?
One major barrier to similar trust in Gaza is the long history of failed ceasefires and peace deals. Deep-rooted mistrust, suspicion and/or fear of the other’s intent, and memories of past violations have all severely undermined efforts to build lasting peace. In Gaza, these issues are compounded by the scale and brutality of the conflict itself. Together, they make sustaining the current ceasefire an enormous challenge, one that will require enormous political will to sustain.
That said, the Irish ceasefire was far from straightforward. To many in Britain, the IRA’s guerrilla campaign was seen as ruthless and illegitimate, while British reprisals had left deep scars across Ireland. The result was a climate of bitterness and mistrust on both sides, one that tested the ultimately successful ceasefire from its very first day.
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The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
