Analysis: Moldovans head to the polls on Sunday in an election whose outcome will be of crucial interest to both Moscow and Europe
On Sunday, Moldovans will go to the polls in a parliamentary election that could define the country's direction for decades. On paper, several parties are competing. In practice, there are two choices: continue down the path of European integration or pivot back towards Russia.
If voters re-elect the incumbent Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), Moldova is likely to push ahead with its bid to join the European Union. For Vladimir Putin, who has long regarded Moldova as part of Russia’s sphere of influence, such an outcome is deeply unwelcome.
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From RTÉ News in 2024, EU says Moldovan presidential election vote took place under 'unprecedented interference' by Russia
The Kremlin is reportedly pulling out all the stops to prevent it. The country's president Maia Sandu has warned that Moldova is under an unprecedented hybrid attack from Russia, while Ukranian intelligence claims Russia has earmarked $350 million to unseat PAS, channelling money into opposition parties and information campaigns.
The Kremlin's allies in Chișinău
Almost every party running against PAS has some connection to Moscow. After a joint trip to Russia and a highly publicised meeting with Kremlin officials, the leaders of Moldova's largest left-wing pro-Russian parties announced the formation of the Patriotic Electoral Bloc in early August. Pro-Russian influence is not limited to Moldova’s left-wing parties. In January, several centre-right parties formed the Alternative Electoral Bloc, which promises to pursue EU integration without PAS.
But the bloc’s commitment to EU integration is questionable, with many of its leaders maintaining clear ties to Moscow. Ion Ceban, the incumbent mayor of Chișinău and one of the bloc’s most notable members, is banned from the Schengen zone due to his Russian connections. Likewise, Alexandr Stoianoglo, another of the bloc's notable members, was Moscow’s preferred candidate in the 2024 presidential election.
From BBC News, how a secret Russian-funded network is attempting to disrupt upcoming democratic elections
How Russia supports it allies
Moscow's strategy is clear: consolidate the pro-Russian vote while dividing the pro-European one. The Kremlin has allegedly provided financial support to several Moldovan parties in the run-up to the elections, channelling funds through networks linked to Ilan Șor, an exiled oligarch accused of stealing $1 billion from several Moldovan banks in 2014.
The Moldovan Security and Intelligence Service has documented Șor affiliates paying people to join demonstrations organised by the Patriotic Bloc. Prosecutors recently raided the offices of the Heart of Moldova Party, a bloc member, uncovering large amounts of undocumented cash.
Much like in Ukraine, Russian-backed media and Kremlin-friendly Telegram channels are portraying PAS and Sandu as fascists, and claim that corruption investigations are politically motivated. Pro-Russian outlets have also linked EU integration to NATO membership, warning that re-electing PAS would turn Moldova into a "second Ukraine."
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From RTÉ Radio 1's News At One, Prof Donnacha Ó Beacháin from DCU on Russia's 'unprecedented interference' in last year's Moldovan presidential election
Moscow has added a new tactic: mobilising roughly 250,000 Moldovan citizens living in the Russian-backed separatist region of Transnistria. Traditionally indifferent to Moldovan elections, these voters are now being encouraged to participate. Ukrainian sources suggest Moscow has allocated $30 million to bribe and transport voters from the region.
What's at stake?
For the Kremlin, Moldova's elections are about more than the country itself. A pro-Russian government would reassert the Kremlin’s influence in the so-called near abroad, potentially affect the war in Ukraine, and even shape internal Kremlin politics.
Domestically, another PAS victory would further weaken Russia’s influence. Since 2021, the party has ended Moldova’s dependence on Russian gas, banned Kremlin-friendly media and made significant progress towards EU candidacy.
From DW, Moldova's young people find themselves at a crossroads with a choice to make between Russia and the EU
There are also suggestions that Moscow hopes to use Moldova strategically in its war against Ukraine. Ukrainian intelligence claims Russian officials aim to secure permission to move troops through Moldovan territory into Transnistria, from where they could threaten Odesa, Ukraine’s strategically vital port city less than 150 kilometres away.
For Russia's political elite, the stakes are personal. Sergey Kiriyenko, a senior Kremlin official dubbed "Russia’s second most powerful man," has recently been tasked with ensuring Moldova elects a Kremlin-friendly government. Success would bolster his standing, while failure could end his political career, just as his predecessor was dismissed after failing to secure Stoianoglo's election last year.
Expect a tight race
A recent survey gave the Patriotic Bloc 36% of the vote, PAS 34%, and the Alternative Bloc 7%. No single party is projected to win a majority, making coalition-building almost inevitable. This poses a problem for PAS, as most other parties have ruled out working with them. If current polls hold, a likely outcome is a coalition between the Patriotic and Alternative Blocs.
From BBC World Service, BBC Eye reporters go undercover to investiage a fake news network attempting to sway the Moldovan election this Sunday with online propaganda
Such an alliance could mirror the "Georgian Scenario", where the Georgian Dream party stalled EU integration while keeping nominal ties to Brussels. A pro-Russian government in Moldova would likely follow a similar pattern, maintaining EU relations while subtly pivoting toward Moscow. It is highly unlikely that any government would allow Russian troops to transit Moldovan territory. The country's dependence on EU trade means Moldova cannot afford to become a second Belarus.
Crucially, the election may hinge on two groups: Moldova’s diaspora, which overwhelmingly supports PAS, and voters in Transnistria, who are being heavily mobilised by Moscow. As often in Moldovan elections, the balance of power may rest with those outside Chișinău.
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The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
