Analysis: Despite efforts to reduce smoking, about 18% of people in Ireland still smoke, a number which has not fallen since 2020
Tobacco smoking is a serious health problem around the world, and Ireland is no different. Even though there have been many efforts to reduce smoking rates, about 18% of people in Ireland still smoke and this number has not reduced since 2020. The fact that reductions in smoking rates in Ireland have stalled, is worrying and means that we need to intensify and refocus our efforts on tobacco control.
We decided to look at the long-term effects of smoking, showing not only how it harms our health, but also how it will probably harm our economy. We used several national datasets, such as Healthy Ireland surveys and the 2022 population census, along with what is already known internationally about the risks of smoking, and applied this to Ireland.
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We projected what would happen to the population of Ireland from 2022 until they died or reached the age of 85. We focused on important outcomes like years lost due to early death (called life years), quality-adjusted life years (which are a measure of the quality of the lives we live), years of productivity and associated healthcare costs. These outcomes help us understand how long people live, how well they live and how smoking affects their ability to work. We estimated what would happen to the entire population, but also provided examples of what could happen to individuals.
The study estimated that all the people in Ireland who smoke combined would lose over 4.9 million years of life and face healthcare costs of around €20.2 billion over their lifetimes. Additionally, smokers are expected to live about 5.9 million years with smoking-related diseases, such as lung cancer, stroke, heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma. These huge numbers show how much smoking affects not just individuals but also the Irish healthcare system.
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It is probably more revealing is to consider individual cases. An average 20-year-old man who smokes daily would lose about eight years of life compared to another 20-year-old male who doesn't smoke. During his lifetime, the 20-year-old who smokes would also live almost five years with smoking related disease, before dying eight years earlier as mentioned above. He would also experience a loss of around six years of productivity due to absences related to smoking. In addition, the healthcare costs for the 20-year-old man who smokes daily would exceed €28,000 over their lifetime, in comparison to a 20-year-old who does not smoke.
Aside from affecting people’s ability to work, the findings also show smoking places a heavy burden on healthcare services. This economic burden can impact families and communities, leading to health problems that may affect future populations. The findings about lost productivity and shortened lives shows how smoking affects society in general.
People who smoke are more likely to experience chronic illness and disability which makes it difficult for them to continue to work and creates a big challenge for society. As Ireland’s population gets older, there are fewer people working, making the loss of productivity from smoking-related health problems even more serious. With fewer workers available, the impact of smoking on productivity could worsen existing challenges, putting more pressure on our healthcare system and economy.
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These findings are important as Ireland had aimed to become a "tobacco-free" country by 2025, with a goal of having only 5% of the population smoking. As this target has been missed, this research is a timely reminder of the effects of smoking and highlights the importance of quitting smoking and reducing the number of young people who start smoking.
Clearly, there is an urgent need to continue to strengthen efforts to reduce smoking. This could include better anti-smoking campaigns, increased support for quitting programs, increased taxation and stricter regulations on tobacco sales and advertising. Community engagement and education are also essential.
This research was supported by the HSE Tobacco Free Ireland Programme [Grant:HEFISSS2022], as part of a collaborative agreement with the RCSI
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Dr. Gintare Valentelyte is a researcher in health economics at the School of Population Health at the RCSI University of Medicine and Health Sciences. She is a Research Ireland awardee.
The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ. If you have been affected by issues raised in this article, support information is available online
