Analysis: Half of the households in Ireland have children, yet there is no plan for where, and how, the next generations will live
By Orla Hegarty, UCD
Half of the households in Ireland have children, yet there is no plan for where, and how, the next generations will live. Since 2016, government housing plans have set out a strategy for the crisis but, other than homelessness, they make no mention of the housing needs of family homes for 1.7 million children and young adults under 24 years. This cohort are almost one third of the population and it is these young citizens who are the 'driving factors behind Irish household sizes'. The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) calls Ireland an outlier in Europe, with a ‘high average household size’ (2.74 in Census 2022), and over 3.2 people in younger families where the parent is under 40. Three bedrooms is the minimum for many of these families, as a home is defined as ‘over crowded’ where a boy and girl over the age of ten have to share a room. Across the EU, Ireland has the highest number of households with three or more children.
This week, the ESRI reported one in five (225,0000) children in Ireland are now living below the poverty line when housing costs are taken into account. This is the same as during the financial crash (2007- 2009), meaning fifteen years of reductions in child poverty have been reversed. Housing costs are pushing families with children into poverty, and research shows that for some this will impact their health, living conditions, educational achievement and employment throughout their lives.
From RTÉ News, Minister for Housing proposes cut to apartment sizes
At the same time, an unprecedented 5,014 children live in emergency accommodation, three quarters of them in Dublin. This figure does not include children in overcrowded or unsuitable accommodation, or those in temporary accommodation due to domestic violence or seeking international protection.
At national level, the government makes forecasts of housing needs and sets supply targets. In simple terms, the target for ‘units’ (houses and apartments) is calculated by dividing the anticipated ‘population’ by an ‘average household size’, using a range of scenarios and assumptions. It is not an exact science, particularly in Ireland with high inward and outward migration. However, on this basis, the National Planning Framework (2025) says that 50,000 additional homes are needed per year, with 40% of them to be within urban areas. A sustainable future requires new residential communities for families and children in cities, and the framework says ‘if a significant proportion of future population growth occurs within or close to the current built-up footprint of settlements, it will be possible to maximise the use of existing facilities near where children and young people live’.
These forecasts for population growth feed down to Local Authorities who have a statutory duty to devise Housing Strategies, using a standard methodology of Housing Needs and Demand Assessment (HNDA). They take account of existing and future needs, local demographics, current stock, construction activity, etc. to "ensure that a mixture of house types and sizes is developed to reasonably match the requirements of the different categories of households". These analyses are democratically adopted into Development Plans, and set a benchmark for development proposals to be evidence-led and aligned with government policy. For example, the Dublin City Plan (2022-28), identifies certain areas (the Liberties and the North Inner City) with insufficient family-size homes and set a requirement that 15% of new homes have at least three bedrooms, and 60% have at least two. In practical terms, this re-dresses imbalances, ensures existing communities are not displaced and mitigates the risk of over-crowding.
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From RTÉ News, ESRI reports a fifth of children are in poverty after housing costs
Regulated standards also ensure that the right housing is built in the right places. When left to the market, investors follow the money because the smaller the apartment, the higher the yield per square metre. Currently in Dublin, looking at a small sample of new-build apartments, studios ‘earn’ an around €58- per square metre per month, 1-bedroom apartments around €53- and 2-bedroom apartments around €41. Incredibly, ‘co-living’ rooms can earn over €100 per square metre per month, for a home not much bigger than a parking space. These tiny home developments were de-facto banned in 2020, because developers rushed to the lucrative alternative, and away from building apartments.
In July, the new Minister for Housing threw out the baby, the bathwater and the toys. He over-ruled carefully considered and democratically adopted standards, without prior warning or consultation, ordering that "there shall be no minimum or maximum requirements for apartments with a certain number of bedrooms" .
This hits hardest on children because the second and third bedrooms are where children sleep and play. If the government doesn’t require them, developers won’t build them. He has de-regulated all new housing development, although this change was driven by the Land Development Agency (LDA) who is tasked only with delivering affordable homes on state land. LDA short-sighted cost-cutting has even squeezed down a one-bedroom apartment so that it no longer fits a baby’s cot. Significantly, the changes will also mean the loss of child-care facilities and play-grounds right across the country, as these are determined by the number of 2-bedroom apartments.
Read more: How much does it really cost to build a new house in Ireland?
This policy sleight of hand is a ‘win’ only for investors, and the government’s supply target. A typical 100 unit apartment building under the old rules can house up to 275 people, but re-designed as studios can only fit 178. So, 78% more units, but 41% fewer people housed, with the same draw on limited finance, construction capacity and infrastructure for far less impact. In simple terms, two 2-bedroom apartments of 73m2 each can house two families (eight people), but the same floor area as studios fits only four single people, while (in the Dublin market) ‘earning’ up to 40% more for the investors.
To break it down, this example assumes a 100-unit apartment building with approx. 5,700m2 apartment internal space (excl. common areas, circulation etc.). Per the 2016 Dublin City Council standards, that's a total occupancy of 301 people (5,687m2). Calculated as 15 x 3bed apartments (1,350m2) housing 75 people, 44 x 2bed apartments (3,212m2) housing 176 people, and 25 x 1bed apartments (1,125m2) housing 50 people.
By 2023 Department of Housing standards, the total occupancy across the same internal space would be 275 people (5,700m2), broken down as 50 x 2beds (3,650m2) housing 200, 25 x 1beds (1,125m2) housing 50 people, and 25 x studios (925m2) housing 25 people.
Under the new 2025 Department of Housing standards, those same square metres would house just 178 people (5,696m2) in 178 studios, of 32 square metres.
‘Housing formation’ is a measure of the number of adults setting up home, and ESRI says this is ‘a key element in the development of housing and planning policy’. New families want to put down roots in a community and make an investment in the future. Many plan for children, and a space to grow. The Irish Constitution recognises the family as the "natural primary and fundamental unit group of Society", but somewhere along the way, the real human needs of home, family, and community, and the government imperatives of sustainable development and value for money have been lost to the unreal demands of real estate.
Orla Hegarty is an architect and an assistant professor at the School of Architecture, Planning & Environmental Policy, at University College Dublin.
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The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
